Introduction: Costs have stabilized, with limited fluctuations in supply and demand. Ethanol trading is running smoothly. On the supply side, there have been operational changes in major production regions, but the output loss is limited. On the demand side, the end-consumer market continues to face pressure and shows weak recovery. Downstream buyers maintain a cautious outlook, purchasing only small volumes to cover essential needs. The market lacks large orders to provide effective support, making it difficult to drive recycled oil prices to stabilize or rebound.
I. Limited Cost Fluctuations, Sustained Losses in Profitability
| Product | Current Period | Prior Period | Change | Change % | Next Period Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast China Corn 95% Ethanol | -232.82 | -249.13 | 16.31 | 6.55% | ↗ |
| Northern Jiangsu Cassava 95% Ethanol | -549.58 | -584.80 | 35.22 | 6.02% | ↗ |
| Northeast China Fuel Ethanol | 355.30 | 355.30 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Guangxi Molasses Ethanol | 520.00 | 520.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Coal-to-Ethanol | 300.00 | 300.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Ethyl Acetate | -330.42 | -268.73 | -61.69 | -22.96% | ↓ |
| Dimethyl Carbonate | 447.70 | 653.50 | -205.80 | -31.49% | ↓ |
Northeast China Corn & By-products Analysis: Corn market prices edged down this week. As of July 2, the weekly average national corn price was 2,365 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton or 0.08% from last week. By region, corn prices in Northeast China were stable to weak, with no improvement in transaction volumes. Corn from the Northeast is currently difficult to sell ex-region; shipments to the northern ports are mostly at a loss. Some deep-processing plants in the producing areas have halted for maintenance, leading to insufficient purchasing. Corn prices in North China saw narrow adjustments within a range, with regional differentiation. Overall, trader inventories are high. Recently, some areas have been affected by rainy weather, dampening corn purchasing and sales, and grain supplies are unevenly distributed. In the destocking areas, the weekly average corn price was slightly weaker, mainly stabilizing with narrow fluctuations. Market trading remained subdued, with buyers purchasing only for immediate needs and no batch stocking activities.
Cassava Chip Analysis: Thai cassava chip prices remained stable this week. Current market offers for Thai cassava chips are at FOB $255/ton. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated at 6.7888.
Molasses Analysis: This week, Guangxi molasses inventory was sold. Ex-factory prices ranged from 830 to 850 RMB/ton, with truck delivery to factories costing around 50 RMB/ton in freight. Currently, molasses ethanol plants are shut down.
II. Limited Supply and Demand Fluctuations, Slight Increase in Plant Output Losses
Ethanol Regional Operating Rate Changes
| Region | Current Period | Prior Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast China | 58.42% | 63.25% | -4.82% |
| North China | 40.06% | 40.06% | 0.00% |
| East China | 50.49% | 50.49% | 0.00% |
| South China | 31.30% | 31.30% | 0.00% |
| Central China | 21.80% | 25.74% | -3.94% |
| Northwest China | 69.63% | 44.00% | 25.63% |
| Southwest China | 14.73% | 14.73% | 0.00% |
| Total | 46.43% | 46.64% | -0.22% |
In-plant supply has decreased. During this period, the supply of bio-fermentation ethanol decreased. Heilongjiang Shenglong was shut down; Henan Hanyong plant also shut down. Hongzhan Bayan plant was in production, while Laha plant was shut down. Wanli was shut down. COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol resumed production, with output beginning early in the month. Zhongke Gelin was operating stably. Shenglong was shut down. In Jilin Fukang, lines 3 and 4 were in production, while line 2 was shut down. Jilin Xintianlong was in production. Dongfeng Hualiang plant was shut down. Zhalantun plant is expected to resume shortly. SDIC Tieling and Hailun were shut down; Jidong plant was in production. Jilin large ethanol plant was in production. In Mengzhou, Henan, Houyuan and Huaxing plants operated normally; Hanyong plant was shut down; Xinxiang plant was shut down. Sichuan Hongzhan plant was shut down. Anhui COFCO plant had two lines in operation in Bengbu, while Suzhou line was shut down. Shandong Qifeng plant was in production. Guangxi COFCO ignited on the 1st but has not yet produced output. Guangxi Jinyuan plant was shut down. Coal-to-ethanol supply remained stable. Shandong plant was shut down. Shaanxi Yushen Nenghua plant started feeding this week but had not sold goods as of this report. Xinghua plant operated at 30% load. Yulin Kaiyue operated stably. Anhui plant was in production. Guangdong plant operated normally. Yulin Kaiyue plant operated normally. Anyang, Henan operated stably; Yongcheng, Henan operated normally. Jingmen Yuanhan plant was in production. Hunan plant was in production. Xinjiang Tianye plant was in production.
| Manufacturer | Unit Under Maintenance | Capacity | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui COFCO | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Guannan Xingguan | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Zhalantun | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/7/6 |
| Lianyungang Longhe | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Dongfeng Hualiang | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2026/4/30 | |
| SDIC Hailun | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/9 | |
| SDIC Tieling | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Xinxiang Xinxing Bio | Fermentation Ethanol | 8.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Sichuan Hongzhan | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Henan Hanyong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/30 | |
| Heilongjiang Shenglong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/30 | Estimated 45 days |
| Wanli Runda | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/23 | Estimated 40 days |
| COFCO Zhaodong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | 2026/7/1 |
| Jilin Fukang | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/7/10 | |
| Jilin Yushu | Fermentation Ethanol | 17.00 | Estimated end of July | |
| Guangxi COFCO | Fermentation Ethanol | 20.00 | 2026/6/8 | 2026/7/1 |
| Xinjiang Tianye | Coal-to-Ethanol | 25.00 | Estimated July | |
| Shandong Hengxin | Coal-to-Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/5 | 2026/7/15 |
| Total | 500.00 | -- | -- |
Ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the next period. Supply is expected to increase slightly next week as the maintenance season in the main production regions ends. End-user demand is improving, but traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will likely continue to see oversupply.
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