Lead: Entering May, the downstream demand for polycarboxylate superplasticizer (PCE) monomer remained sluggish in its recovery. Coupled with a decline in the high prices of the raw material, ethylene oxide, and increasing inventory accumulation among monomer producers, PCE monomer prices have continued to fall under the pressure of multiple negative factors. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to marginal changes in costs and supply. If cost support continues to weaken and supply pressure remains unabated, the weak market trend is likely to persist.

Price: Monomer Prices Keep Falling Amid Multiple Negative Factors

Entering May, the high prices of raw material ethylene oxide began to decline. As of May 14, the price of ethylene oxide in East China had dropped from 9,000 CNY/ton at the end of April to 8,200 CNY/ton, a decrease of 800 CNY/ton, weakening cost-side support compared to earlier periods. Currently, the monomer industry operates at a low utilization rate, but market supply remains relatively ample. With no improvement in demand and monomer prices continuously declining, downstream end-users' purchasing enthusiasm for raw materials has been restrained, leading to generally weak buying intentions. Inventory pressure on monomer producers is gradually increasing. Companies and traders have adopted a strategy of offering discounts to stimulate sales. Although spot prices have softened, the pace of destocking remains slow. As of May 14, the mainstream price of PCE monomer EPEG in the East China market was 8,450 CNY/ton, down 650 CNY/ton month-on-month, but up 1,100 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average weekly price for EPEG in the main East China market was 8,700 CNY/ton, down 400 CNY/ton from the previous week.

| Product | Market | Specification | 2025/05/15 | 2026/05/15 | Change Value | Change (%) | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PCE Monomer | East China | EPEG | 7200-7500 | 8300-8500 | 1100 / 1000 | 15.28% / 13.33% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | East China | HPEG | 7200-7500 | 8300-8500 | 1100 / 1000 | 15.28% / 13.33% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | East China | TPEG | 7300-7600 | 8400-8600 | 1100 / 1000 | 15.07% / 13.16% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | South China | EPEG | 7400-7500 | 8500-8700 | 1100 / 1200 | 14.86% / 16% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | South China | HPEG | 7400-7600 | 8500-8700 | 1100 / 1100 | 14.86% / 14.47% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | South China | TPEG | 7500-7600 | 8600-8800 | 1100 / 1200 | 14.67% / 15.79% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | Northeast | HPEG | 7300-7600 | 8200-8400 | 900 / 800 | 12.33% / 10.53% | CNY/ton |
| PCE Monomer | Northeast | TPEG | 7400-7800 | 8300-8500 | 900 / 700 | 12.16% / 8.97% | CNY/ton |

Upstream: Cost Pressure Remains, Monomer Profit Margins Poor

The cost side remains one of the core factors affecting the PCE monomer industry. In early May, raw material ethylene prices continued to ease. As of the 14th, domestic ethylene prices fell to 8,200 CNY/ton, down 3.53% month-on-month. Additionally, the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has essentially faded, significantly weakening the driving and supporting effect of costs on ethylene oxide. Secondly, demand performance is weak. Affected by sluggish demand in downstream infrastructure and real estate, new orders for industries such as PCE monomer and ethanolamine are generally mediocre. Other downstream plants are mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, maintaining only essential procurement, which drags on the consumption of raw material ethylene oxide. Consequently, the price of ethylene oxide has fallen to 8,200 CNY/ton, a decline of 8.89% compared to the end of April.

Although the price of raw material ethylene oxide has decreased, easing cost-side pressure, the decline in PCE monomer prices has far exceeded that of the raw material. The PCE monomer industry continues to operate with negative profit margins, and losses have increased. As of May 14, the average weekly cost of HPEG in East China was 9,321 CNY/ton, down 214 CNY/ton month-on-month. The average weekly profit for HPEG in East China was -621 CNY/ton, down 186 CNY/ton month-on-month. There has been no significant improvement in producer profits.

Supply: Operating Rates Remain Low, Supply Not Significantly Increasing

Overall, as of May 14, the capacity utilization rate of the PCE monomer industry was 28.81%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points month-on-month but a decrease of 9.21 percentage points year-on-year. Weekly production was 32,900 tons, an increase of 4.93% month-on-month but a decrease of 18.83% year-on-year. The operating load also showed a downward trend compared to April, down 4.27 percentage points month-on-month. Due to poor profitability, the PCE monomer industry maintains a low operating load to avoid excessively rapid inventory accumulation, which could further drag prices down.

Demand: Mainly Essential Procurement, Slow Improvement, Average Purchasing Enthusiasm

Entering May, overall concrete delivery volumes have remained relatively stable. As of May 14, the current operating rate for concrete was 6.89%, up 0.36% month-on-month. Delivery volume reached 1,379,860 cubic meters, an increase of 5.57% month-on-month but a decrease of 14.57% year-on-year. Given the significant fluctuations in raw monomer prices, downstream plants show low purchasing enthusiasm, primarily consuming low-priced inventory from earlier periods. Most downstream participants adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only based on essential needs. Support from the demand side for raw materials has weakened.

Forecast: PCE Monomer Industry Expected to Continue Weak Consolidation

Cost Aspect: Supply of raw material ethylene oxide in May may contract due to the concentrated maintenance shutdowns of some units, putting limited pressure on the supply side. Ethylene prices are likely to continue declining, offering insufficient cost support. As downstream industries only maintain essential consumption amid poor demand follow-through, there is a possibility that ethylene oxide prices could continue to ease, weakening the cost guidance provided to monomers.

Supply and Demand Aspect: Domestic monomer plant operating rates remain at relatively low levels. Some units have plans for maintenance or reducing loads, leading to a slow buildup of industry inventory. In May, downstream sectors like concrete, infrastructure, and real estate are unlikely to see significant improvement. Monomer prices have not yet stopped falling. Against this backdrop, downstream players will likely adopt a procurement model of purchasing on an as-needed basis for essential replenishment, showing weak willingness for concentrated stockpiling.

Overall Conclusion: Under the dual pressure of easing costs and weak demand, PCE monomer market prices are expected to continue facing pressure in May. However, as lower-priced inventory from earlier periods is consumed, the rate of decline may slow down.