Lead: DOP market supply is gradually increasing, but buying support lacks continuity. The post-holiday high prices were short-lived. Although octanol prices remain firm, DOP prices are still influenced by demand.

Firm raw material prices fail to sustain high DOP prices

After the May Day holiday, DOP market prices rose by RMB 100/mt, driven mainly by the upward trend in feedstock octanol prices. Terminal users made moderate just-in-time purchases post-holiday. Supported by both rising raw material costs and transactional activity, DOP prices held steady. However, after prices reached elevated levels, terminal users primarily digested their inventories. Market transactions lacked continuity, and the high-price situation lasted only one day. Toward the weekend, DOP traders once again offered concessions to stimulate sales, but downstream demand was insufficient, and market transactions were not significantly boosted.

Plant restarts increase DOP supply

Prior to and during the holiday, Weibo and Libang plants experienced temporary shutdowns, while plants such as Zhenjiang Liancheng and Jiuhong operated at reduced rates. During the holiday period, daily capacity utilization fell to as low as 55%. After the holiday, the DOP market remained profitable, encouraging the gradual resumption of production at idled or reduced-capacity plants. As of May 8, daily DOP capacity utilization had recovered to 62%, with daily output exceeding 4,000 metric tons. Combined with inventory accumulated during the holiday, DOP market supply is now relatively ample. With no sustained improvement in demand, mainstream DOP traders are still prioritizing destocking, which exerts some downward pressure on prices.

Insufficient demand support keeps DOP under pressure

Regarding the feedstock market, octanol prices remain at high levels, but high prices lack transactional support and show signs of potential easing. Meanwhile, PA (phthalic anhydride) prices also show signs of loosening. The cost support for DOP is slightly weakening. However, the large price gap between the ortho-xylene and naphthalene-based PA routes has led to significant differences in feedstock costs and margins among DOP producers. At times, lower-cost material is more readily transacted.

From the demand side, new orders from end users remain unsatisfactory, and their own cost pressures are significant. Procurement of DOP continues to follow a just-in-time buying pattern. DOP transaction periods are still concentrated, which makes price increases prone to "one-day wonders."

Currently, the DOP market is characterized by oversupply. With ample available supply, DOP market prices remain under pressure. Additionally, there is an expected increase in DINP supply in East China, intensifying competition between the two products. Their price trends are likely to influence each other. It is expected that DOP market prices will soften and fluctuate mildly. However, given the limited room for price concessions in octanol and ortho-xylene-based PA, cost pressure may curb the extent and speed of DOP price declines.