In May, both the export volume and price of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) rose, hitting a record high for a single month.

[Introduction] In May 2026, China's monthly export volume of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) reached a historic high, with total exports surging to 42,009.69 tons and the average export price climbing to $1,453.36 per ton. This was primarily due to the reshaping of global supply chains triggered by geopolitical conflicts, which led to a sharp expansion of the supply gap in the international market, thereby driving a significant increase in China's MEK exports.

I. Monthly Export Volume Grows, Hitting a Historic High in May

In May, China's single-month export volume of MEK reached a record high, with total monthly exports surging to 42,009.69 tons and the average export price climbing to $1,453.36 per ton. In terms of export destinations, demand from South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia exploded, with imports from these three countries accounting for 67% of total exports. The core driver of this market trend was geopolitical events. The blockage of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz caused turbulence in the global energy supply chain, forcing major MEK production units in Japan and Taiwan to lower operating rates or shut down, creating a temporary supply gap. Leveraging its stable supply capacity, China's MEK industry quickly filled the gap in the international market, significantly enhancing its export pricing power. The average export price rose sharply from $813 per ton to $1,453 per ton, exhibiting a classic pattern of simultaneous increases in volume and price. Driven by this, the domestic supply-demand structure for MEK experienced a notable shift, characterized by strong external demand and weak domestic demand. The high domestic prices were entirely driven by export orders, while the domestic market had fallen into a negative cycle of "shrinking demand and declining operating rates" under cost pressure.

II. Dominated by the Asian Triangle, Global Market Undergoes Deep Restructuring

In May, China's MEK export volume reached 42,009.69 tons, accounting for 30% of total exports. Among this, exports to South Korea totaled 16,464 tons (39%), to Vietnam 5,939 tons (14%), and to Indonesia 5,620 tons (13%). These three countries formed the absolute core of China's MEK exports. From the perspective of export destinations, the market exhibited characteristics of stable foundations and regional differentiation. Southeast Asia remained the absolute core market for China's MEK exports, with strong demand resilience and continuously increasing concentration of flows. The European market, however, showed significant structural differentiation. Exports to Europe surged to 3,152 tons in March but subsequently fell below 1,000 tons in April and May, as demand was susceptible to short-term factors. Meanwhile, exports to Central Europe saw a phased increase in March, reaching 2,433 tons in a single month, possibly related to the concentrated execution of large orders. Notably, despite drastic monthly fluctuations in export volumes to certain regions, the average export price (in USD) maintained a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting that the global MEK supply-demand landscape was not in systemic imbalance but rather in a stage of structural rebalancing. Imports from other regions were limited, representing fringe markets with minimal impact on the overall market trend.

III. Three-Dimensional Drivers: China's MEK Enters a New Phase of Export Expansion

1. Historical Breakthrough: Simultaneous Leap in MEK Export Volume and Price
From January to May 2026, China's MEK export volume reached 138,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.36%. In May alone, the monthly export volume reached 42,000 tons, with the average export price jumping to $1,453 per ton, achieving a breakthrough growth of "both volume and price rising together."

2. Solid Asian Triangle: Core Driver of Demand Growth
The three major markets—South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia—together accounted for 58% of total MEK exports from January to May. They not only served as the stable base of demand but also became the primary driving force behind this round of demand expansion. Among them, South Korea, with its mature coatings and electronic chemical industries, has a long-term, stable, and hard-to-replace reliance on imports of organic solvents. This is the fundamental reason South Korea has consistently been the largest export market for China's MEK. In contrast, Vietnam and Indonesia benefited more from the dividend of manufacturing relocation and infrastructure expansion, with import growth rates significantly higher than those of mature markets.

3. Substantial Leap in Pricing Power
Catalyzed by geopolitical events, overseas MEK units were forced to reduce operating rates. Leveraging its stable supply channels, China's MEK quickly filled the gap, transitioning from a traditional price taker to a global pricing benchmark, significantly enhancing its premium ability in the MEK market.

IV. Market Outlook: Geopolitical Premium to Recede, Export Sentiment to Decline

As tensions in the Middle East ease and some international MEK units gradually resume production, the excess export volume and high premium driven by the overseas supply gap in the first half of the year will subside. In the second half of the year, MEK export volume and prices are expected to decline moderately compared to the first half, with export sentiment shifting from the explosive growth seen earlier to a more stable state. However, given that China's MEK production capacity dominates the global market, coupled with the rigid demand for solvents in near-sea markets such as South Korea and Vietnam, China's MEK penetration and influence in Southeast Asia and near-sea markets will further increase, providing solid support for export bottom lines. On the domestic front, the partial return of export supply to the domestic market will intensify pressure on domestic supply-demand rebalancing, with increasing difficulties for intermediaries in offloading goods. The supply-demand contradiction will become more prominent, and the overall market is expected to follow a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness—tight early on but loosening later. It is recommended to closely monitor the pace of start-ups of international MEK units and changes in domestic and international price spreads, dynamically adjust the ratio of domestic sales to exports, and focus on production based on sales and profit locking.