How did Salt Lake Industry's 2025 profit forecast beat market expectations?

How did Salt Lake Industry's 2025 profit forecast beat market expectations?
Salt Lake Industry's 2025 preliminary results revealed Q4 net profit of roughly 40.9 billion yuan, nearly double the 20-25 billion yuan consensus forecast. The beat stemmed not from volume growth—potassium chloride output was 4.9 million tons but sales lagged at 3.81 million tons, leaving over 20% unsold—but from price recovery. KCl prices rose modestly year-on-year in H2 2025, while lithium carbonate, though volatile, rebounded in the second half. The unsold inventory signals deferred earnings, supporting continued growth into 2026. The company's strategic shift to state-owned China Minmetals control, completed via a 135.58 billion yuan acquisition, positions it to consolidate Qinghai's salt lake resources, expanding mining rights beyond Qarhan to include Yiliping, adding 1.46 million tons of lithium chloride and 14.63 million tons of KCl reserves.