[Lead] Recently, the price of fluorocarbon refrigerant R142b (ODS) has been rising steadily, with a cumulative increase of 5,500 yuan/ton (+13.76%) within the week. The "scarcity premium" of R142b quotas enables leading enterprises to lock in long-term high profitability and sell at elevated prices.

According to the 2026 quota allocation plan issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the production quota for R142b remains unchanged from 2025. Subject to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, R142b is a second-generation HCFC variety under accelerated phase-out. Given that the industry's total quota cannot be increased, its effective supply remains in a long-term "capped" state. As a restricted variety, producers have no flexibility to expand capacity to capture incremental gains. Thus, "as long as production runs at full capacity, all output can be sold." With quotas unchanged and strong downstream demand, the tight supply-demand balance is unlikely to ease. Leading enterprises holding R142b quotas, unable to benefit from capacity expansion, tend to adopt a "reluctant-to-sell and volume-control" sales strategy. By regulating shipment schedules, they prolong the high-price period throughout the year, maximizing quota value. Major players are actively limiting order releases, resulting in persistently low volumes of spot goods available for quick circulation in the channel, further strengthening pricing power for existing inventory. Currently, San'ai Fu (Changshu and Inner Mongolia) has both R142b production lines operating normally, but is temporarily not quoting prices—a typical reflection of this strategy.

The recent price increases for fluorocarbon refrigerants R142b (ODS and feedstock grade) and R152a (feedstock grade) have two layers. First, R142b (ODS) is driven primarily by low industry quotas; by the second quarter, small producers' quotas are nearly exhausted. When major Zhejiang-based producer Aikesheng received concentrated orders, it raised its offers. Second, R142b (feedstock grade) and R152a (feedstock grade) both suffer from high cost pressure from anhydrous hydrogen fluoride. Post-Lunar New Year, the downstream PVDF industry operated at full capacity, with order demand significantly higher than before the holiday. This supply-demand synergy supported price hikes in the feedstock market.

R142b's annual production quota is now fixed, and circulating volumes decrease month by month. This mechanism of "consuming quotas over time" ensures that the seller-dominated market structure will persist. If the third quarter brings typical seasonal support from hot weather and downstream production preparation demand, the tightening of spot supply margins will further push market prices higher.

During the cyclical upswing for R142b, leveraging the scarcity advantage created by the quota system, "controlling volume and stabilizing prices" should be the dominant business strategy. By managing shipment schedules to extend the high-price period throughout the year, enterprises can maximize quota value. End users with rigid demand should secure raw materials in advance to lock in supply and ensure continuous production amid supply tightness.