Market Overview: In early 2026, the domestic dichloromethane market ended its weak trend. Driven by strong cost support and reduced supply, prices rebounded from low levels, showing a regionally fluctuating upward trend. Entering the first week of February, the upward momentum continued. According to monitoring by the Business Society commodity market analysis system, as of February 6, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was reported at 1,860 yuan/ton, up 2.34% from the beginning of the month and 9.57% from the beginning of the year.

Core Drivers of Price Increases:

1. Strong Cost Support: High Liquid Chlorine Prices Lead to Production Losses
   In February, after a slight decline, the liquid chlorine market rebounded to the high levels seen in January. Currently, tank truck ex-factory quotations remain at 300–450 yuan/ton. Methanol prices experienced a slight decline. On February 6, the Business Society methanol benchmark price was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the beginning of the month. Although cost pressures have eased slightly, the overall loss situation remains unchanged. Due to cost pressures, companies have a strong willingness to raise prices.

2. Supply-Side Reduction: Production Cuts Alleviate Oversupply Pressure
   To cope with losses, some production facilities in Shandong voluntarily reduced operating rates. At the beginning of February, facilities maintained low operating rates, with some prioritizing scheduled shipments. This limited spot circulation, kept inventories low, and reduced supply flexibility. The pressure on the supply side has been temporarily alleviated, providing room for price increases.

3. Demand Side: Pre-Holiday Essential Stockpiling Provides Basic Support
   As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries are conducting routine pre-holiday stockpiling, creating rigid demand. However, the momentum for demand growth remains limited. Downstream procurement is primarily driven by essential needs, with no significant speculative buying observed. Therefore, demand provides support rather than strong upward momentum.

Future Outlook: Short-Term Strength, Long-Term Pressure Remains
Overall, the market is expected to maintain a strong consolidation trend before the Spring Festival. Support from high costs and supply contraction remains, and producers are clearly inclined to maintain prices, making it easier for prices to rise than fall. However, the extent of demand follow-through will be key to determining the upside potential. Close attention should be paid to liquid chlorine price trends and changes in the operating rates of major production facilities.