Geopolitical Tensions Resurge, Driving a Rebound in the Ethylene Glycol Market

1. Today's Summary:
   ① Ethylene glycol (MEG) inventory at major East China ports stood at 99,000 tons, down by 5,000 tons from the previous statistical period.
   ② International crude oil prices rose, while coal prices remained stable.
   ③ Shipments from major East China ports increased compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic MEG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 24, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 7,035 CNY/ton, up by 175. The closing delivered price in the South China market was 6,925 CNY/ton, up by 100. The USD-denominated closing price was 780 USD/ton, up by 35.

The MEG market rebounded today. In the morning session, influenced by renewed geopolitical tensions, spot prices in Zhangjiagang opened high near 6,950. Driven by short-covering demand during the trading session, prices briefly surged to around 7,200. However, due to insufficient follow-through buying and the conclusion of short-covering activity, the market pulled back from highs. The afternoon session saw strong consolidation, with spot trades concluding near 7,070 by close. Spot basis fluctuated sharply, starting the day around Jan +1250, peaking intraday near Jan +1500 before retreating to around Jan +1200. The South China market remained sluggish with a pronounced holiday atmosphere and low trading volume.

3. Spot Basis

Spot basis fluctuated significantly, opening around Jan +1250, surging to a peak near Jan +1500 during the session, and then falling back to around Jan +1200.

Table 2: Changes in Spot Basis in Jiangsu Market (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Load Rates by MEG Process Route (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 24, the overall domestic MEG operating rate was 65.26% (stable); integrated units operated at 63.14% (stable); and coal-to-MEG plants operated at 68.91% (stable).

As of February 2026, total domestic MEG capacity has been adjusted upward to 30.819 million tons/year. Among this, syngas-based MEG capacity remains stable at 11.3 million tons/year; non-syngas capacity increased to 19.519 million tons/year, including an addition of 800,000 tons/year from BASF’s Zhanjiang plant.

Table 4: Profit Margins by MEG Process Route (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Shipment Status at Major Ports:

On September 23, 2026, daily MEG shipments from a major warehouse zone in Zhangjiagang were 3,400 tons, up by 44.68% compared to the previous period. Daily MEG shipments from two major warehouse zones in Taicang were 4,000 tons, down by 11.11%.

Inventory Status at Major Ports (Updated on Mondays and Thursdays):

As of September 24, total MEG inventory at major East China ports stood at 99,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. Specifically, inventory levels were as follows: Zhangjiagang 38,000 tons, Taicang 34,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou combined 12,000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu combined 15,000 tons.

Regarding shipments in the current period: Zhangjiagang averaged 2,600–2,700 tons per day, while Taicang averaged 4,500 tons per day.

Table 5: Weekly Inventory Comparison at East China Ports (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Sentiment Forecast from Upstream and Downstream Participants in Domestic MEG Market (Updated Every Thursday)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Market Outlook

With renewed geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding shipping schedules through the strait, MEG supply remains tight. Next week, East China MEG prices are expected to trade within the range of 6,900–7,000 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Markets

1. Pricing of Related Products

Table 7: Prices of Related Products in the Polyester Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Operating Loads of Polyester-related Products:

PTA Operating Load: Decreased to 71.65%, based on a capacity base of 93.3 million tons/year.
Polyester Operating Load: Increased to 72.98%, based on a capacity base of 90.775 million tons/year.

3. Intraday Sales-Production Ratios for Polyester:

Today (Sep 24, 2026), the average sales-production ratio for sample polyester filament yarn enterprises was 77.5%, an increase of 54.0 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, filament yarn manufacturers concentrated on discount-driven sales, leading to a localized recovery in sales volumes. Expectations remain that discount margins may expand further towards the end of the session; attention should be paid to late-session transaction details. Specific sales-production ratios are as follows: 90%, 40%, 240%, 50%, 35%, 40%, 100%, 35%, 45%, 30%, 50%, 35%, 40%, 150%, 100%, 40%, 180%, 150%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 70%, 90%, 40%, 35%, 20%, 20%, 20%, 50%.

Today (Sep 24, 2026), the sales-production ratio for Chinese direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was 50.50%, an increase of 17.82 percentage points from the previous trading day. Specific sales-production ratios are as follows: 50%, 30%, 38.55%, 60%, 60%, 80%, 0%, 30%.

Today (Sep 24, 2026), the sales-production ratio for sample polyester chip enterprises was 66.69%, an increase of 41.08 percentage points from the previous period (Sep 23, 2026). Rising costs combined with essential restocking by downstream users led to a moderate warming in factory sales today. Specific sales-production ratios are as follows: 50%, 140%, 25%, 80%, 30%, 60%, 40%, 0%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)