Lead: In early Q2 2026, after a year-long downturn, the acetone market staged a strong rebound, spurred by Middle East geopolitical factors. On April 3, East China prices surged to the 8,300 yuan/mt mark, ending the previous spell of hovering near 4,000 yuan/mt. Five months later, the East China acetone market broke through its year-to-date high, reaching a new level of 8,800–9,000 yuan/mt.
I. Three core factors behind the break above the 9,000-yuan mark
First, the cost side was ignited. The trigger for this renewed surge in East China acetone prices was again the sharp escalation of Middle East tensions. International crude oil prices rose sharply, climbing above the $100/bbl mark, driving the two major phenol/acetone feedstocks—benzene and propylene—sharply higher and providing strong cost support for acetone.
Second, imported cargo supply was expected to tighten. Based on import data from January to July, China’s acetone imports totaled 226,000 mt, down 36.89% year on year. About 31% of China’s acetone imports come from Saudi Arabia; with Middle East tensions high, participants worry that subsequent import supply will become even tighter. At the start of the week, port inventories were at a low level of 9,000 mt. With spot resources circulating in the East China market tight, cargo holders showed a strong reluctance to sell and held back offers, continuously pushing quotations higher.
Third, participants’ sentiment added fuel to the fire. Influenced by the mentality of buying on gains rather than on declines, some end-user plants entered the market to tender for replenishment, and some traders also restocked. Overall market trading was active, pushing negotiation levels sharply upward.
II. Hidden concerns behind the sharp market rally
From the perspective of domestic supply, phenol/acetone units at Huizhou Zhongxin, Shandong Fuyu, Wanhua Chemical, and others will resume/restart successively in September. Shenghong Refining & Chemical cargoes will be gradually released into the market, and Zhejiang Petrochemical cargoes will also arrive at ports as replenishment. Domestic supply is expected to increase. According to Chempricehub data, China’s acetone supply in September is 296,200 mt, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise to 80.18%.
In terms of downstream acceptance of high-priced acetone, as acetone price levels have climbed sharply, downstream industries are balking at high-priced acetone, and their purchasing pace may show signs of slowing.
From the perspective of downstream profitability, among the four major downstream sectors, only MMA is currently profitable, while bisphenol A, isopropanol, and MIBK are struggling in a quagmire of losses. However, whether acetone at 9,000 yuan/mt can hold firm still depends on downstream acceptance.
III. Outlook: tight-then-easing pattern unchanged, with concerns over a subsequent pullback
Fundamentally, domestic supply is expected to increase. On the cost side, the Middle East situation remains volatile, and costs may still provide periodic boosts to the market. However, whether the acetone market can hold at highs ultimately depends on downstream’s actual ability to absorb high-priced feedstock. The acetone market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between cost support and demand absorption, which inevitably deepens wait-and-see sentiment and concerns about a pullback after the sharp rally.
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