From January to July 2026, China’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) export market exhibited a clear pattern of rising volumes and prices. According to customs data, China’s total MEK exports during January–July reached 183,900 tonnes, up 23.35% year on year. Although fluctuations in international market prices put pressure on exports, total volumes maintained strong growth. In particular, explosive growth in April effectively eased domestic supply pressure.
From January to July 2026, China’s MEK export market experienced a shift from steady operation at the start of the year to sharp fluctuations in mid-year, with overall performance better than the same period last year. However, affected by volatile international crude oil prices and adjustments in global chemical supply-demand dynamics, export value did not grow substantially in tandem, showing a typical price-for-volume pattern. By stage, export volumes remained normal in January–February. From March onward, with downstream restart after the Spring Festival and the seasonal return of overseas orders, exports climbed steadily and entered an upward channel. The real turning point came in April–May, when escalating geopolitical conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and hit the global energy supply chain. Major MEK production units in Japan and China’s Taiwan region were forced to reduce operating rates or shut down, creating a temporary supply gap in the international market. Leveraging stable plant operations and ample supply, China’s MEK industry quickly filled the vacuum, significantly strengthening its export pricing power. In May alone, monthly exports surged to 42,000 tonnes, setting a historic record. After that surge, however, exports fell markedly in June–July. On the one hand, after large volumes had flowed out earlier, domestic prices pulled back, and the narrowing spread between domestic and overseas prices eroded export arbitrage opportunities. On the other hand, after a period of concentrated restocking by overseas downstream buyers, purchasing pace naturally slowed, and export support weakened at the margin. The earlier pattern of a strong overseas market and a weak domestic market began to loosen, and the domestic market gradually absorbed the pressure of returning supply.
In terms of export destinations, from January to July 2026, China exported the largest volume of MEK to South Korea, totaling 43,249.98 tonnes. Exports to Indonesia were 31,509.52 tonnes. Exports to India were 26,358.03 tonnes. Exports to Vietnam were 23,712.11 tonnes. These markets basically formed the absolute mainstay of China’s MEK exports—not only the core base of concentrated demand but also the main driver of this round of demand expansion. Among them, South Korea, with its mature coatings and electronic chemicals industries, has long-term, stable, and hard-to-replace import dependence on organic solvents, which is the fundamental reason it has long remained China’s largest MEK export market. By contrast, Vietnam and Indonesia have benefited more from manufacturing relocation and infrastructure expansion, with import growth significantly higher than in mature markets. Europe showed clear structural divergence: exports there peaked at 3,152 tonnes in March, then fell below 1,000 tonnes in April–May, as demand is susceptible to short-term disruptions. For Central Europe, there was a temporary surge in March, with monthly exports reaching 2,433 tonnes, possibly related to the concentrated execution of large orders. Other regions had limited import volumes, are marginal markets, and have little impact on the overall market.
By export registration location, from January to July 2026, Shandong Province ranked first in MEK export volume at 91,543.42 tonnes, accounting for 50% of total exports. Guangdong Province exported 59,898.29 tonnes, accounting for 32.72% of total exports. Relying on production capacity layout and port advantages, the two provinces continued to dominate China’s MEK export landscape. Exports from Henan, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other locations were mainly handled by traders. In March–May, under the continued impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation, plants in Japan and China’s Taiwan region maintained low-load operations, further highlighting China’s MEK export advantages. Major plants received export orders smoothly, and export prices remained at a high level of USD 1,500–1,600 per tonne FOB for a long period. This effectively diverted domestic supply and fundamentally changed the market’s supply-demand structure; high domestic prices were entirely driven by export orders.
Looking ahead, as overseas plants gradually restore supply, the global MEK supply gap will narrow rapidly. China’s MEK export arbitrage window will be narrower than in the first half, and export diversion capacity will weaken at the margin. Toward the end of the third quarter, with a periodic recovery in export orders, export volumes in September–October are expected to remain at a high level. Entering the fourth quarter, export orders will decline month by month, while domestic supply competition will intensify after new plants in South China come onstream. Exports will then become the only way to adjust the market’s supply-demand imbalance. It is advisable to monitor how geopolitical developments affect shipping and energy costs. If the overseas supply gap is repaired faster than expected while new domestic capacity is released as scheduled, exports will face pressure from both declining volumes and prices, and the industry as a whole will enter a new normal of low profits and weak equilibrium.
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