Introduction: Recently, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has staged a robust upward movement, with the price center continuing to shift higher amid sustained strength. According to industry monitoring data, the mainstream negotiated reference price in the Shandong market currently stands at 5,150–5,200 RMB/ton on an acceptance basis ex-works, up significantly from earlier levels. The core driver behind this rally does not stem from explosive growth in downstream demand, but rather from a structural supply–demand mismatch created by tightened spot supply and the concentrated delivery of export orders.
Supply Side: Order-Scheduled Deliveries Becoming the Norm, Spot Supply Remains Tight
From the supply perspective, although major plants are operating essentially normally with relatively stable operating rates, spot supply in the market continues to remain tight. The main reason for this situation is that most producers are currently focusing their efforts on executing export orders, which has noticeably squeezed the actual volumes allocated to the domestic market and significantly constrained the pace of supply release.
Plants generally operate on an order-scheduled delivery basis, leaving limited sellable inventory in the market. As export orders continue to be delivered, domestic spot resources are being steadily absorbed, keeping plant inventories broadly at low levels and strengthening sellers' reluctance to offload goods. Supported by both low inventories and full order books, producers maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm, actively pushing up their quotes, which lends solid support to market sentiment.
In addition, the restart and commissioning cycles for some units following earlier maintenance have been prolonged, with effective output release coming online slower than market expectations, further intensifying the short-term supply tightness. Tradeable resources in the distribution market remain relatively concentrated, and amid rising price expectations, both inventory hoarding and order-scheduled selling coexist, collectively forming the supply-side foundation for this round of price increases.
Demand Side: Rigid Demand Support Coexists with "Buying into Strength" Inventory Replenishment
Compared with the notable contraction on the supply side, demand-side performance displays a structural feature of "weak at home, strong abroad." On the export front, overseas purchasing remains active, with concentrated deliveries of orders from Southeast Asia, Europe, and other regions serving as an important catalyst for the recent market strength.
Domestic downstream demand, by contrast, has been relatively moderate. Downstream industries overall are maintaining a rigid-demand procurement pace, with actual transactions largely driven by production necessities. Market participants are cautious in their positioning, and their willingness to chase higher prices is limited. However, amid expectations of continued market gains, some downstream enterprises, concerned about further escalation in feedstock prices, have engaged in passive stockpiling behavior—"buying on strength rather than weakness"—which has to a certain extent amplified market demand and provided support for the price floor.
Future Outlook: Near-Term Momentum Likely to Remain Firm, but Chasing Gains Calls for Caution
Taken together, the current strong performance of the dimethyl carbonate market results from the interplay of tight spot supply, export support, and market sentiment. In the short term, given that export orders are still within their delivery cycle, plant inventories are unlikely to accumulate rapidly, and the tight spot supply pattern is expected to persist for some time. Prices may continue to edge higher.
Nevertheless, for market participants, chasing price increases still warrants a measure of caution. On the one hand, the domestic dimethyl carbonate industry has a relatively large overall production capacity base, and over the long term it still faces the pressure of overcapacity. As units that previously underwent maintenance gradually resume normal output, and amid expectations of new capacity coming on stream, market supply will gradually increase, and the supply–demand balance may then face a fresh rebalancing.
On the other hand, downstream industries have limited tolerance for high-priced feedstocks. As prices continue to climb, some downstream sectors may choose to cut operating rates or control feedstock inventories due to cost pressure, which in turn will cap the upside for further price gains. Therefore, this round of market strength should be viewed more as a phase-based recovery driven by supply–demand mismatch rather than a major cycle reversal led by demand. Future market direction warrants close attention to the actual pace of output recovery at major plants, the delivery schedule of export orders, and the follow-through in downstream demand.
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