Ethylene Tar Market: Mainstream Prices Rise (Aug 28–Sep 3, 2026)

1. Weekly Market Focus

1. Low-intensity military clashes between the U.S. and Iran have emerged again, increasing supply risks.
2. As U.S.–Iran military conflict persists and oil tankers have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns over supply risks have further intensified.
3. U.S.–Iran tensions remain high, transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz stay low, and supply risks continue.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Ethylene tar market: This week, the auction of the comparable product—high-temperature coal tar—concluded smoothly. Mainstream transaction prices in the Shandong market reached RMB 4,810/mt, up RMB 250/mt from last week, further underpinning the market bottom. International crude oil continued to trade at elevated levels, keeping cost-side support firm. Supported by both solid cost fundamentals and a pricing advantage over competing products, ethylene tar producers maintained a firm price-supporting stance, and prices continued their upward march at high levels during the week.

3. Ethylene Tar and Related Market Statistics

Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Cost forecast: According to Chempricehub monitoring data, as of the 3rd, Sinopec's ex-plant naphtha price for September 2026 is expected to be adjusted to RMB 6,172/mt, up RMB 192/mt month on month.

International crude oil prices are expected to retain room for upside next week, with WTI likely trading at USD 84–93/bbl and Brent at USD 89–98/bbl. The core logic behind next week's oil price forecast is that the tense atmosphere of the U.S.–Iran military conflict persists, with risks of spillover. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, and heightened geopolitical instability is lending stronger support to oil prices. Key points to watch:

1. Supply: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains strained. The U.S. and Iran are locked in intense competition over shipping control, leaving the navigational environment in the strait highly uncertain.
2. Demand: With transit volumes through the strait remaining low, refinery operating rates at some Asian refineries reliant on Middle Eastern crude imports are unlikely to improve meaningfully. Meanwhile, the traditional peak season for fuel consumption is drawing to a close, keeping the demand side under pressure.
3. Geopolitics: U.S.–Iran military confrontation continues to escalate. The U.S. military has expanded airstrikes to cover more targets inside Iran and, for the first time, has included Iranian oil tankers in its strike list. Iran has responded with reciprocal military action, marking a notable rise in conflict intensity and adding further to geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
4. Financial factors: Following the Fed Chair's recent hawkish remarks, market expectations of interest rate hikes have strengthened considerably. At present, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting is deemed high, and further hikes may still follow within this year. Dollar movements are likely to create periodic disturbance for oil prices.

Carbon black forecast: In the coming period, coal tar feedstock prices have remained firm, supported by downstream restocking demand, and the market may still carry expectations of follow-up increases next week. Driven by these cost-side positives, new-order prices in the carbon black market are likely to continue tracking raw material prices upward.

High-temperature coal tar forecast: The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to retain some room for gains next period. Key points to watch:

1. Supply: Restrained by persistently high coking coal prices, most coking plants remain loss-making overall. Many coking enterprises have raised output curtailments and intend to extend them further, resulting in reduced high-temperature coal tar output.
2. Demand: Downstream operations—both deep-processing and carbon black—remain at high operating rates. No notable load-reduction intentions have been heard at downstream plants, and essential demand remains relatively strong.
3. Sentiment: With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approaching, downstream restocking sentiment stays robust.
4. Inventory: Coking plants are currently under no inventory pressure.

Fuel oil market forecast: Crude oil prices are expected to have room to rise next period, making marine fuel feedstock prices more likely to move up than down and shifting the cost center further upward. The wholesale price of 180CST is expected to fluctuate at high levels while digesting earlier gains, and the national average weekly price may only edge slightly higher. Next period, the mainstream ex-warehouse wholesale transaction price for 180CST nationwide is expected at RMB 6,000–6,200/mt; the mainstream bunker supply price for China VI 0# diesel is expected at RMB 8,500–8,700/mt, and that for marine light fuel oil at RMB 8,400–8,600/mt.

Ethylene tar market forecast: Looking ahead to next week, the ethylene tar market is expected to run in a steady-to-strong pattern. On the supply side, under the backdrop of lighter cracking feedstocks, ethylene tar output remains limited and overall supply is tight, keeping supply-side pressure modest. On the cost side, international crude oil is holding at high levels, still providing solid cost support. On the competing-product front, high-temperature coal tar auctions are expected to remain favorable next week, expanding ethylene tar's comparative price advantage and forming firm support at the bottom. With multiple positive factors converging, producers' price-support mentality should remain steadfast, and mainstream negotiated prices are expected to stay firm next week, with room for further upward exploration. However, downstream buyers may grow more cautious toward high-priced resources, and the extent of price gains could be constrained by downstream demand absorption capacity. The focus should be on actual transaction follow-through.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to Chempricehub's Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.