I. Key Focus Points
(1) Last week, propylene feedstock prices rose significantly, while glycerol prices remained stable at high levels with narrow fluctuations. On September 11, the negotiated price for Shandong propylene was approximately CNY 10,025/ton, and the negotiated price for East China 99.5% glycerol was approximately CNY 9,225/ton.
(2) Last week, the average price of Shandong propylene was CNY 9,696/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was CNY 180/ton. As of the close on September 11, the weekly average theoretical profit margin for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene method stood at CNY 1,844/ton.
(3) The domestic ECH industry's weekly average capacity utilization rate was 45.34%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from the previous week.
(4) The domestic epoxy resin industry's weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 48.71%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points compared to the previous period. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 51.47% and 34.19%, respectively.
Core Logic: Strengthened cost support, combined with limited available spot resources in the market, has improved sentiment among producers and traders. Downstream users anticipate stockpiling, resulting in trading activity primarily driven by small-lot rigid demand.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 12 | Sep 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 10,025 | 9,300 | +725 |
| Glycerol | East China | 9,225 | 9,200 | +25 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,550 | 11,500 | +50 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-Factory) | East China | 15,200–15,500 | 14,600–15,000 | +600/+500 |
III. Data Table
| ECH Industry Supply & Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Sep 12 | Sep 4 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 45.34% | 45.89% | -0.55% | ↑ |
| Propylene Method Production Profit (CNY/ton) | 1,844 | 2,028 | -9.07% | ↑ |
| Glycerol Method Production Profit (CNY/ton) | -690 | -800 | +15.94% | ↑ |
| Note 1: Capacity utilization rate reflects production metrics, defined as the ratio of actual output from producer units to their total capacity. | ||||
| Note 2: Production profit margin is industry-level data reflecting overall profitability in mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price. |
IV. Market Outlook
Last week, the domestic ECH market trended upward amid stability. Cost support strengthened, with ECH manufacturers focusing on fulfilling existing orders. Available tradable spot resources remained tight, fostering a bullish atmosphere in the market. Although downstream buyers showed caution regarding higher raw material prices as costs climbed, low-priced supply was difficult to source, leading negotiations to center on mid-to-high price ranges. Trading activity remained moderate. At the start of this week, the market opened with habitual wait-and-see attitudes; prices are likely to continue running firmly, requiring further monitoring of trading dynamics.
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