I. Key Points
(1) Last week, propylene feedstock prices trended lower from high levels, while glycerin prices declined within a narrow range. On September 20, the indicative negotiated price for propylene in Shandong was CNY 9,635/ton, and the indicative negotiated price for 99.5% glycerin in East China was CNY 9,125/ton.
(2) Last week, the average price of propylene in Shandong was CNY 9,732/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was CNY 300/ton. As of the closing on September 20, the weekly average theoretical profit margin for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene route stood at CNY 1,519/ton.
(3) The weekly average operating rate for the domestic ECH industry last week was 47.55% (revised from 45.94% in the previous period), an increase of 1.61 percentage points compared to the previous week.
(4) The weekly average market operating rate for the domestic epoxy resin industry last week was 50.50%, up 1.79 percentage points from the previous period. Specifically, the operating rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 53.63% and 34.79%, respectively.
Core Logic: Cost support has weakened. Combined with limited pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream users, producers and traders face pressure to offload inventory. Negotiations are primarily focused on offering discounts for new orders, resulting in limited actual transactions.
II. Price List
| Product | Region | Sep 20 | Sep 12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 9,635 | 10,025 | -390 |
| Glycerin | East China | 9,125 | 9,225 | -100 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,350 | 11,550 | -200 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-Factory) | East China | 15,500–16,000 | 15,200–15,500 | +300/+500 |
III. Data List
| ECH Industry Supply and Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Sep 20 | Sep 12 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
| Operating Rate | 47.55% | 45.94% (Revised) | +1.61% | ↑ |
| Production Profit via Propylene Route (CNY/ton) | 1,519 | 1,844 | -17.62% | ↑ |
| Production Profit via Glycerin Route (CNY/ton) | -721 | -690 | -4.92% | ↓ |
| Note 1: The operating rate refers to the ratio of actual production output to installed capacity for producing enterprises, reflecting production activity levels. | ||||
| Note 2: The production profit margin is industry-wide data, reflecting the overall profitability situation in mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to the average price. |
IV. Market Outlook
Last week, the domestic ECH market initially remained stable before trending downward. Cost support moderated, and combined with insufficient follow-through demand from downstream sectors, ECH manufacturers adopted a bearish sentiment. There was increased willingness to sell during price highs; however, transactions at elevated levels faced resistance. To facilitate sales, suppliers offered discounts, leading to an overall weak market atmosphere. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic ECH market will likely continue its downward trend in the near term. Further monitoring of market trading dynamics is required.
Comments
0