[Introduction]: The future outlook for fuel ethanol is expected to present a complex situation characterized by "restructuring of the supply landscape, strong cost support, but demand growth facing challenges." In the short term, the market will operate on a stronger footing due to cost and geopolitical influences, but in the medium to long term, it will face pressures from capacity expansion and weak demand.

I. China Fuel Ethanol Supply Forecast

China Biofuel Ethanol Production Forecast, 2026-2030

Data source: Chempricehub Information

From 2026 to 2030, biofuel ethanol production will decrease in line with declining capacity and downstream demand, falling to 2.9 million tons by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.43%. As new energy vehicles become increasingly prevalent, consumption of ethanol-blended gasoline will decline, leading to a year-on-year reduction in biofuel ethanol consumption. However, considering the still substantial number of gasoline vehicles in use, the decline in fuel ethanol consumption will be relatively moderate in the short term, and production will maintain a slow, steady downward trend.

II. China Fuel Ethanol Demand Forecast

China Fuel Ethanol Demand Forecast, 2026-2030

Data source: Chempricehub Information

According to Chempricehub Information forecasts, the CAGR for ethanol-blended gasoline consumption from 2026 to 2030 is projected to be -5.91%. Over the next five years, with the deepening development of new energy sources, consumption of ethanol-blended gasoline is expected to decline year by year. Chempricehub Information has made separate forecasts for the consumption of ethanol-blended gasoline across 11 regions and, combined with the annual decline in total ethanol-blended gasoline consumption, has provided a forecast for fuel ethanol consumption from 2026 to 2030, with year-on-year declines ranging between 4.47% and 6.81%.

Based on the ethanol-blended gasoline consumption forecast, the consumption of fuel ethanol used in ethanol-blended gasoline is expected to drop to 2.9273 million tons by 2030. The core reason is that the replacement of gasoline vehicles by electric vehicles is structural and irreversible. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China continues to rise, directly causing gasoline consumption to peak early and enter a downward channel. Consequently, the demand for fuel ethanol, used as an additive, also decreases.

Comparison of Total Ethanol-Blended Gasoline Consumption and Fuel Ethanol Consumption in 11 Regions, 2026-2030

Unit: 10,000 tons

| Item | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Total Ethanol-Blended Gasoline Consumption | 3922.50 | 3713.00 | 3502.00 | 3298.5 | 3074.00 |
| Fuel Ethanol Consumption | 373.53 | 353.58 | 333.48 | 314.1046 | 292.73 |

Data source: Chempricehub Information

Although the fuel market may shrink, the existing stock of gasoline vehicles remains significant. At the same time, as an important basic green chemical raw material, biomass ethanol's long-term value and strategic position will not disappear. The core competitiveness of enterprises will shift from scale and cost to technological innovation, high-end product R&D, and the ability to build a green value chain.