Lead: Driven by the widening decline in the prices of DOTP raw materials—octanol and PTA—the profitability of the DOTP industry has significantly improved recently. After nearly half a month of losses, the sector has successfully turned a profit. Taking the Zhejiang market as an example, the current mainstream ex-warehouse quotation for DOTP is 9,300 yuan/ton, with theoretical profit reaching 80 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery in profit margins. However, overall market transaction sentiment remains lackluster, with downstream demand following only on a need-to basis and lacking momentum. Despite this, DOTP prices continue to face downward pressure, fluctuating narrowly around the cost line.

1. Oversupply of Octanol Pushes Prices Down

Recently, the decline in domestic octanol market prices has further widened. Taking the Shandong market as an example, the current mainstream ex-factory quotation is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the same period last week, a drop of over 7%.

The price of the raw material propylene has fallen to low levels and is now fluctuating sideways, offering weak support for octanol production costs. On the supply-demand front, octanol plant output has declined this week, with weekly production reaching 76,400 tons, a 6% decrease month-on-month. However, industry inventories had already accumulated earlier, and new capacity units are running stably. As a result, the overall focus of producers remains on volume-driven sales, while traders are also relatively active in selling. On the demand side, plasticizer producers are showing weak enthusiasm for spot purchases, with a slower pace of procurement and little willingness to build inventory, maintaining a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Octanol spot trading is limited to basic need-based purchases, with actual transaction volumes low and overall market sentiment subdued. The imbalance between supply and demand in the industry has become prominent, and the market continues to face downward pressure.