Introduction: Recent rapid increases in crude oil prices have driven upstream pure benzene prices to follow the energy rally, leading to a sharp rise in aniline production costs. Combined with stable domestic demand and healthy market sentiment, the aniline market has strengthened notably.
Driven by a surge in crude oil prices fueled by Middle East geopolitical tensions, coupled with strong supply-side support, domestic refineries are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The pure benzene industry operates at low rates, with East China port inventories continuing to decline. Spot prices have risen rapidly, with holders reluctant to sell, supporting spot basis strength. On the demand side, conditions remain weak. Downstream units face profit losses, procurement is cautious, and transaction follow-through is insufficient, limiting upward price potential. The overall market shows a tight supply but weak demand pattern. Low inventories provide bottom-line support, but downstream resistance to high prices caps gains. This week, prices are expected to follow crude oil volatility with a mainly fluctuating upward trend.
From the perspective of aniline spot market supply and demand, a planned short-term outage at Dongying Huatai during the period provided some support. More importantly, normal domestic downstream market entry, coupled with frequent export order inquiries, has driven strong demand, which is a key support for high prices. On the cost side, pure benzene is consolidating strongly, and northern factory bidding prices continue to rise, providing solid cost support.
Looking at price transmission along the chain, the upstream raw material market is rising strongly, while some downstream and end-users are following slightly more slowly, with insufficient price increase follow-through. Current demand-side purchasing remains cautious, focusing on genuine needs.
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Avg | Previous Period Avg | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Benzene | East China | 8405 | 7940 | 465 | 5.86% | CNY/ton |
| Shandong | 8261 | 7778 | 483 | 6.21% | CNY/ton | |
| Hydrogenated Benzene | East China | 8400 | 7925 | 475 | 5.99% | CNY/ton |
| Aniline | East China | 11720 | 11120 | 600 | 5.4% | CNY/ton |
| Shandong | 11600 | 11000 | 600 | 5.45% | CNY/ton | |
| Polymeric MDI | 44V20/M20S/5005 | 17200 | 17100 | 100 | 0.58% | CNY/ton |
| Accelerator | M | 19000 | 18000 | 1000 | 5.56% | CNY/ton |
| CZ | 23000 | 22500 | 500 | 2.22% | CNY/ton | |
| Antioxidant | 4020 | 19000 | 17700 | 1300 | 7.34% | CNY/ton |
| RD | 15800 | 14300 | 1500 | 10.49% | CNY/ton |
From the industry supply perspective, a major East China plant restarting and ramping up has increased industry output and operating rates. However, spot supply remains tight, supporting multiple price hikes in the aniline market.
Looking Ahead: In the next period, no new maintenance plans have been announced. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a steady procurement pace, and the export window may see new orders materialize. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain relatively strong. On the cost side, the recurring nature of geopolitical situations will keep crude oil-related volatility unresolved, and expectations for strong pure benzene prices remain unchanged, providing clear bottom-line support. Overall, the domestic aniline market in the next period is expected to consolidate on a strong footing.
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