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Deepening supply-demand tug-of-war impact, ethanol trading volumes continue to narrow

Published on 2026-07-31

China's ethanol output in July 2026 totaled 806,300 mt, up 40,300 mt month-on-month, an increase of 5.26%. Cumulative output from January to July 2026 reached 6,170,100 mt.

Regional operations

For bio-fermented ethanol, operating rates declined in Northeast China. Hongzhan ran four plants, with Laha taking a 15-day brief shutdown. SDIC Jidong's unit operated normally. Tieling remained shut down throughout the month. Hailun started up around mid-month, and Wanli began feeding feedstock around the 25th. Jilin Xin Tianlong's unit ran normally, while Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang's unit remained shut down. In Inner Mongolia, Zhalantun and Chifeng Ruiyang units were both offline.

Operating rates in East China declined. COFCO Anhui ran steadily, with the Bengbu plant operating normally. Anhui Wanshen operated until its unit was shut down at month-end. Huating experienced a brief shutdown and then resumed production. In the Mengzhou area of Henan, the Huaxing and Hanyong units both experienced shutdowns, and Houyuan had a short shutdown planned; the Xinxiang unit was shut down.

Operating rates in Guangxi rose. COFCO Guangxi resumed operations, Guangxi Jinyuan resumed production, and Guangxi Xintiande ran normally. Among molasses-based ethanol producers, only Haiying's unit was in operation; all others were shut down and sold from inventory.

Coal-based ethanol operating rates rose. Yushen's unit ran normally; Xinghua's unit was shut down; Hengxin produced product starting on the 27th; Guangdong Boke's unit was shut down; Daya Bay resumed operations after a brief shutdown. All other units ran normally.

Maintenance details

During the month, ethanol units with a combined annual processing capacity of 5.45 million mt were shut down. Heilongjiang Hongzhan's Jixian and Huanan plants have shutdowns planned for August. SDIC Tieling produced at the start of the month, Hailun produced, and Jidong ran normally. Wanli began feedstock input on the 25th. Jilin Xin Tianlong shut down at the start of the month and resumed production in mid-to-late month. Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang remained shut down. In Inner Mongolia, Zhalantun and Chifeng Ruiyang units were offline. COFCO Anhui's fuel ethanol output declined, with one line each in Suzhou and Bengbu shut down. Guannan Xinguan and Lianyungang Longhe units were shut down. Among the three plants in Henan, Hanyong's unit had a brief shutdown while the others ran normally; the Xinxiang unit was shut down. Among coal-based ethanol producers, Yushen continued operating at low load, while Jingmen Yuanhan, Baling Petrochemical, and Henan Ruibai ran normally. Anhui Tanxin resumed production after a one-week brief shutdown.

Summary of ethanol unit maintenance in July 2026 (Unit: 10,000 mt)

Producer Unit in Maintenance Capacity Start Date End Date
COFCO Anhui Fermented ethanol 15.00 2026/5/18
Anhui Wanshen Fermented ethanol 12.00 2026/7/24 2026/7/30
Hongzhan Laha Fermented ethanol 60.00 2026/7/1 2026/7/15
Guannan Xinguan Fermented ethanol 10.00 2025/10/20
Zhalantun Fermented ethanol 15.00 2026/6/1
Lianyungang Longhe Fermented ethanol 10.00 2025/10/20
Dongfeng Hualiang Fermented ethanol 10.00 2026/4/30
Chifeng Ruiyang Fermented ethanol 8.00 2026/6/18 2026/8/10
SDIC Tieling Fermented ethanol 30.00 2026/6/15 Expected by end of month
Xinxiang Xinxing Bio Fermented ethanol 8.00 2026/5/18
Sichuan Hongzhan Fermented ethanol 30.00 2026/6/15
Heilongjiang Shenglong Fermented ethanol 50.00 2026/6/30
Wanli Runda Fermented ethanol 50.00 2026/6/23 2026/7/25
Jilin Fukang Fermented ethanol 50.00 2026/7/10 2026/8/10
Jilin Yushu Fermented ethanol 17.00 2026/7/28
Henan Huaxing Fermented ethanol 50.00 2026/7/20
Henan Houyuan Fermented ethanol 50.00 2026/7/28 2026/7/31
Shandong Hengxin Coal-based ethanol 50.00 2026/6/5 2026/7/27
Huizhou Yuxin Coal-based ethanol 10.00 2026/7/3
Yanchang Xinghua Coal-based ethanol 10.00 2026/7/18 2026/7/28
Total 545.00

Forecast for August–October

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to trend narrowly downward over the next three months. With the concentrated maintenance season for fermented ethanol concluding, coal-based ethanol supply will rise modestly. On the demand side, no significant boost is anticipated, and market procurement will remain largely need-based. Demand from the traditional baijiu sector stays weak, and the market faces a supply-demand mismatch, making it difficult for prices to improve in the short term. Prices are expected to mainly track cost trends.

Key points for the next period

  1. Corn feedstock prices are trending firm but could decline.
  2. Competition in the coal-based ethanol market is intense, with operating loads expected to remain high in the short term.
  3. Downstream chemical ethyl acetate demand is normal.
  4. Ethanol operating rates in Northeast China are expected to remain at low loads.
  5. Logistics prices are changing, with freight rates having improved within their range.

Comments

0
  • Elena Vasquez 2026-07-31 20:09
    The supply-demand tug-of-war is clearly squeezing spot liquidity, and with capacity utilization diverging by region, I expect ethanol margins to stay under pressure heading into next quarter.
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