Guide: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have repeatedly fluctuated, leading to a weekly decline in international crude oil prices. Consequently, the cost support for crack C9 has significantly weakened. Domestic refinery operations have generally increased their loads, resulting in a slight uptick in feedstock supply. Downstream products like C9 petroleum resin and industrial aromatic solvents have seen price declines, with industry chain profits shrinking simultaneously. End-user purchases remain limited to sporadic essential demand. With the triple negative factors of falling costs, increased supply, and weak downstream demand, crack C9 prices this week remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, showing regional divergence. The short-term market is expected to maintain a weak, volatile pattern.

Domestic Spot Market: National average prices slightly declined; regional prices remained stable.

2025-2026 Crack C9 Price Comparison (CNY/ton)

(Data visualization omitted as per instructions - table data follows)

Data Source: Chempricehub

By region, prices were largely stable with minor fluctuations and individual adjustments:

Table 1: China Crack C9 Regional Price Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Avg | Previous Period Avg | Change | % Change | Unit |
|-----------|-----------------|--------------------|---------------------|--------|----------|----------|
| Crack C9 | Northeast | 3900 | 4100 | -200 | | CNY/ton |
| | North China | 4500 | 4500 | 0 | | CNY/ton |
| | East China | 4362 | 4362 | 0 | | CNY/ton |
| | Central China | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | CNY/ton |
| | South China | 4430 | 4430 | 0 | | CNY/ton |

Data Source: Chempricehub

Ex-works quotations in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained stable. Only an independent refinery in the Northeast reduced its price by 200 CNY/ton. Sinopec East China's listed price of 4362 CNY/ton was maintained until June 24, locking in the monthly settlement price. The current price spread between East China and North China is 138 CNY/ton. Due to multiple unit maintenance shutdowns in both regions, cross-regional circulation is limited, and the arbitrage window has not opened. The phenomenon of local refineries offering lower prices for shipments has increased.

Core Drivers: Three Negative Factors Converge, Market Fundamentals Remain Weak

Table 2: China Crack C9 Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | 2026/5/14 | 2026/5/21 | Change | % Change | Unit |
|------------------------|-----------------|-----------|-----------|--------|----------|----------|
| Crack C9 | North China | 4467 | 4462 | +5 | +0.11% | CNY/ton |
| Industrial Aromatic Solvent | East China | 5226 | 5254 | -28 | -0.53% | CNY/ton |
| C9 Petroleum Resin | North China | 5960 | 6112 | -152 | -2.49% | CNY/ton |

Data Source: Chempricehub

Cost Side: Average Crude Oil Prices Fall, Cost Support Weakens

The weekly average price of Brent crude oil was $94.91/barrel, a decrease of $4.32/barrel or 4.35% week-on-week. Fluctuations in the US-Iran negotiation process and intermittent local frictions, combined with increased expectations of a Fed interest rate hike and subdued global demand, lowered the weekly crude oil price center. This weakened the cost support for crack C9 from its origin, making it difficult to drive up spot prices.

Supply Side: Unit Operating Rates Rise, Market Supply Slightly Increases

This week, units such as Daqing Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou increased their operating loads. Domestic total crack C9 output reached 59,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons week-on-week. Capacity utilization rate was 74.32%, up 0.18 percentage points from the previous period. Regarding maintenance, Sinopec-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical began a major overhaul on June 4, Hainan Refining & Chemical plans to shut down for maintenance on June 6, Jianjiang New Materials resumed production after the weekend maintenance, while the restart time for other long-term maintenance units remains undetermined. Due to the new unit maintenance, next week's output is expected to drop to 58,100 tons, but this may not offset this week's increase in supply.

Demand Side: Downstream Products Decline, Essential Procurement Becomes Mainstream

Two major downstream raw material consuming products weakened simultaneously: The national average price of C9 petroleum resin was 5,960 CNY/ton, down 152 CNY/ton week-on-week. Processing profit plummeted by 111 CNY to 163 CNY/ton, and industry operating rates fell to 49.12%. The average price of industrial aromatic solvents was 5,226 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY week-on-week. The loss per ton expanded to 438 CNY, and industry operating rates edged up to 51.17%. Regional demand diverged; in the North, the aromatic solvent market was sluggish, while in the South, prices were slightly supported by a small number of vessel orders. Downstream factories generally resisted high-priced raw materials. Throughout the week, the market only saw small essential replenishment orders, with procurement sentiment remaining persistently weak.

Industry Chain Transmission: Upstream and Downstream Gameplay Intensifies, Market Transmission Faces Hurdles
Upstream crack C9 prices stabilized with minor fluctuations, but downstream resin and solvent prices were reduced to stimulate sales, hindering the downward transmission of costs. Downstream profitability continued to shrink, preventing demand-side benefits from filtering back up to raw materials. Combined with falling xylene quotations across all regions and weakening component demand, the entire industry chain formed a pattern of stable raw materials, falling finished goods, declining profits, and stagnant transactions. The market lacks upward momentum.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, the crack C9 market is seeing stagnant transactions and narrow-range fluctuations, suppressed by the triple factors of falling crude oil prices dragging down costs, a slight increase in domestic supply, and weak downstream product demand.

Looking ahead, international crude oil is expected to continue its downward trend, further weakening cost support. Although concentrated unit maintenance in the later period may marginally tighten supply, several C9 resin units plan to shut down, leading to continued declines in downstream operating rates. Demand for aromatic solvents is unlikely to improve, and essential procurement is expected to remain the norm. Under multiple negative constraints, crack C9 is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, with mainstream prices referencing 4,300-4,500 CNY/ton.

Key points to monitor subsequently: Changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation and international crude oil fluctuations, the progress of upstream and downstream unit startups and shutdowns, and the pace of centralized replenishment by downstream factories. If crude oil continues to fall sharply, or if end-user demand further shrinks, crack C9 spot prices still have room for further decline.