According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic toluene market experienced a fluctuating upward trend in January 2026, shifting from the weaker pattern observed in December to achieve an overall increase. Support from the cost side and pre-holiday restocking served as the core drivers, though the price rise narrowed toward the end of the month due to insufficient follow-up demand. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5,170 RMB/ton to 5,450 RMB/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 5.42% during the period, with the overall trading range noticeably higher than the previous month.

First and Middle Ten Days: The domestic toluene market initiated a fluctuating upward trend. Shandong, as a core production region, was driven by the continuous recovery of crude oil prices, leading major refineries to take the lead in raising their quotations. By the middle of the month, the mainstream quotation range in the region had risen to 5,300-5,350 RMB/ton, an increase of over 150 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. East China and South China regions followed suit with synchronized price increases. Refineries under Sinopec also raised their quotations in coordination. Market trading activity gradually became more active, and the negotiation focus steadily shifted upward. The monthly high point once touched 5,480 RMB/ton.

Last Ten Days: The market entered a phase of high-level fluctuations. Although quotations in East China and South China remained high, terminal purchasing willingness declined after the completion of phased restocking. The market's characteristic of being dominated by rigid demand became prominent. Despite refineries' strong willingness to maintain prices, their sales pace slowed. Some regions offered slight concessions to promote transactions. After a minor price correction, prices stabilized, maintaining overall high-level fluctuations. The final price at the end of the month settled at 5,450 RMB/ton.

Cost Side: The market trend this month exhibited distinct phased characteristics: surging higher, encountering resistance, and then correcting, yet overall remaining at high levels. At the beginning of the month, supported by tight supply, rising external markets, and expectations of downstream pre-holiday stockpiling, the market began a strong rally. Enterprises showed a strong willingness to maintain prices, with quotations successively raised, leading to a rapid price surge. In the middle of the month, driven by the simultaneous strength of downstream synthetic rubber futures and a heated spot trading atmosphere, prices continued to reach new highs. Spot resources were tight, and low-priced supplies were difficult to find. Towards the end of the month, as prices rose significantly, downstream raw material cost pressures increased sharply, and profits remained under pressure. Purchasing enthusiasm in the market noticeably declined, and high-price transactions met resistance, leading to a phased market correction. However, supported by the lack of significant supply-side easing, the correction was limited, and the market overall maintained high-level operation, with prices showing a substantial increase for the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price for the March contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price for the April contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $67.37 per barrel.

Business Society Brent-WTI Crude Oil Price Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: According to the Business Society commodity market analysis system, as of January 29th, Sinopec's sales company's para-xylene (PX) price remained stable, currently set at 7,300 RMB/ton, uniformly implemented across the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Major units such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal product sales. The current price has accumulated an increase of 300 RMB/ton compared to December 30th.

International Market: As of January 28th, the closing price for para-xylene (PX) in the Asian market was $898-900/ton FOB Korea and $923-925/ton CFR China, an increase of $31/ton compared to the end of the previous month. The strength in the PX market boosted the overall sentiment of the domestic aromatics sector. PX futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also moved upward synchronously. The closing price for the 2603 contract was 7,392 RMB/ton, an increase of 184 RMB/ton compared to the end of the previous month, providing positive momentum for the toluene market.

Domestic blending and chemical industry demand this month showed a pattern of strength followed by weakness. In the first ten days, influenced by the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries such as coatings, dyes, and pharmaceutical intermediates began pre-holiday restocking, with marginal increases in procurement volume, becoming an important driving force for price increases. However, after the phased restocking ended in the middle and last ten days, downstream industries returned to a just-in-time purchasing strategy, with no secondary concentrated restocking observed. The blending sector maintained rigid demand purchases, providing limited further impetus for price increases. Towards the end of the month, market trading activity cooled, becoming the main reason for the slight price correction. Overall, although there was no substantial increase in demand this month, the phased support formed by pre-holiday restocking still provided significant assistance to the rise in toluene prices.

Business Society PX Price Trend Chart:

Market Outlook: The current domestic toluene market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, international crude oil prices remain high and volatile, providing ongoing cost-side support. Furthermore, the Asian PX market continues to strengthen, creating a generally warm atmosphere in the aromatics sector. Coupled with the still-tight toluene supply in Shandong and limited availability of goods, these factors support toluene prices. On the other hand, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches for downstream industries, enterprises are gradually entering shutdown and stockpiling phases. Terminal demand is gradually entering the off-season. The pace of post-holiday resumption of work and production is not yet clear, and the market lacks sustained support from demand increments. Additionally, after the end of phased restocking at month-end, rigid demand dominates the market, and market participants are cautious about chasing higher prices.

In summary, the toluene market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuating pattern in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, influenced by cost support and tight supply, prices are unlikely to see significant corrections. Post-holiday, close attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, the progress of downstream resumption of work and production, and the performance of the PX market linkage. These factors will become the core variables dominating the subsequent market trend.