Cost-driven and sentiment resonance, MIBK market sees wide-ranging rally.

Lead: The MIBK market has risen sharply in recent days. As of September 10, the price in East China climbed to CNY 13,000/tonne, up 26% from September 1. This was mainly due to the surge in international crude oil, which rapidly pushed up costs. Suppliers held firm on prices and were reluctant to sell. Although downstream purchasing was slow, low-priced cargoes were hard to find, so the focus of small-lot negotiations was forced upward.

I. Cost Side: Acetone Rises Sharply, Industry Costs Surge

Table: Summary of MIBK Industry Chain Prices (Unit: USD/bbl; CNY/tonne)

The core driver of the recent MIBK rise came from sharp fluctuations on the feedstock side. There are no signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict, and international crude oil prices have continued to surge, driving a broad increase in industrial chain prices. The acetone market has risen sharply, with prices breaking through the CNY 9,000/tonne mark, a notable gain. As the main feedstock for MIBK, the rapid rise in acetone prices has directly caused production costs in the MIBK industry to surge, significantly squeezing corporate profit margins. Against the backdrop of sharply rising cost pressure, producers’ willingness to push prices higher has been stimulated. Strong cost-side support has provided a solid floor for the MIBK market and served as the most direct trigger for this round of gains.

II. Supply Side: Sentiment Boosted, Reluctance to Sell Dominates

Recently, the MIBK operating rate has fluctuated around 49%. Affected by the strong atmosphere of price increases across the industrial chain this month, front-end downstream restocking has been relatively active. Producers are fulfilling orders and face no inventory pressure. Some cargo holders have shown reluctance to sell, further exacerbating tight spot circulation and supporting higher prices.

III. Demand Side: Cautious Buying Sentiment, Small Rigid-Demand Orders Follow Up

Compared with the active upward push upstream, downstream demand has been relatively restrained. Facing rapidly rising prices, downstream buying sentiment is cautious, inquiry activity is moderate, and resistance to high-priced feedstock has emerged. Most downstream enterprises are mainly watching and waiting, slowing their purchasing pace and only following up with small rigid-demand orders. However, because low-priced supply is hard to find, even though downstream has a strong intention to press prices down, the actual negotiation focus has still been forced upward.

IV. Outlook: Firm in the Short Term, Watch the Cost-Demand Tug-of-War

Overall, the MIBK market is currently in a phase where cost-push and active supplier price support are reinforcing each other. The international crude oil situation has a greater impact than changes in supply and demand. In the short term, international crude oil prices are trending firm, and the cost pressure from high acetone prices is difficult to alleviate. Suppliers remain firm in their price-support stance, and market bottom support is strong. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and insufficient demand follow-up may cap the upside. The MIBK market is expected to remain firm and upward in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the US-Iran situation, plant dynamics, and downstream demand follow-up, while remaining alert to market fluctuations caused by changes on the cost side.