Introduction: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, but repeated reversals in news flow have gradually worn down market sentiment. Bisphenol A (BPA) has progressively decoupled from international crude oil trends, shifting towards being primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals. Affected by limited new downstream orders, the pace of raw material procurement has slowed, while suppliers' willingness to sell has increased. However, phenol and acetone prices remain high, providing ongoing cost support. Overall, the BPA market is exhibiting a weak, range-bound pattern.

Post-holiday, the BPA market has stabilized with a downward bias. Influenced by news of a US-Iran ceasefire, costs have softened. Coupled with a bearish sentiment among both buyers and sellers, holders have become more active in offloading cargo, leading to the emergence of price concessions. Downstream procurement remains sluggish, with a focus on inventory consumption, resulting in sparse actual transaction volumes in the market. As of this report, the BPA market price is quoted at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 2.19% from April 1st.

Recently, the BPA supply-demand balance has remained in a state of oversupply. Downstream Polycarbonate (PC) production has declined: Luxi Chemical's PC unit has one line under temporary shutdown for maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical's PC operating rate has dropped to 85%, and Zhangzhou Chi Mei's PC unit has entered a shutdown period for technical upgrades. Epoxy resin production has increased: Dongfang Feiyuan's unit has begun maintenance, while Shandong Yirui's unit is operating normally. Operations at some other epoxy resin plants have seen minor fluctuations. However, the overall weekly average consumption of BPA has shown a downward trend, while the weekly average BPA production has remained stable around 94,000 tons. Consequently, the supply-demand surplus has widened, exerting a bearish influence on the BPA market.

Although BPA costs retreated somewhat in April, with the price spread between phenol and BPA narrowing, overall costs remain above pre-US-Iran conflict levels, having climbed above 11,000 yuan/ton. The cost side therefore limits the downside space for BPA, providing strong support for its floor price.

The BPA market is expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term. Key focus areas are as follows:

Supply Side: BPA production is expected to see little change in the near term, with spot supply relatively ample. However, inventory pressure at most plants remains manageable.

Demand Side: The two major downstream sectors (PC and epoxy resin) are showing insufficient follow-through. Downstream players have sufficient raw material inventories, are cautious in market inquiries, and have limited procurement enthusiasm.

Cost Side: Prices for raw materials phenol and acetone are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range but remain at elevated levels overall, providing strong cost support for BPA.

Sentiment: Market participant sentiment continues to be perturbed by geopolitical developments. However, supported by costs, bearish sentiment is not strong. Yet, constrained by weak demand, holders have limited room to support prices, and the standoff between buyers and sellers is expected to persist.