Cost and supply-demand factors alternately dominate, causing frequent price fluctuations in the phenol market in the first half of 2026.

Introduction: In the first half of 2026, the domestic phenol market experienced multiple twists and turns, with price trends oscillating between cost transmission and supply-demand variables. The market saw frequent fluctuations, with spot prices ranging from 5,675 to 10,050 yuan/ton. According to statistics from chempricehub, the average price of phenol in East China in the first half of 2026 was 7,651 yuan/ton, up 445 yuan/ton from 7,206 yuan/ton in the same period of 2025, an increase of 6.18%. The high for the first half appeared in early March at 11,050 yuan/ton, while the low was in early January at 5,675 yuan/ton.

Table 1: Domestic Phenol Spot Price Fluctuations in the First Half of 2026 (Unit: yuan/ton)

Source: chempricehub

I. Phenol Market in First Half of 2026: Volatile, with High-Low Spread Exceeding 5,000 Yuan/Ton

Data source: chempricehub

Early in the year, the market was dragged down by costs. In February, supply and costs alternated as influences.

Phenol started the year on a downward trend, with cost impact outweighing supply-demand factors, and phenol prices closely correlated with pure benzene. In February, supply-side effects were more pronounced: a tight supply situation in the north early in the month caused opposite directional trends between northern and southern markets. Before the Chinese New Year holiday, limited supply pressure and some inquiry participation prompted a shift from pushing up prices to stabilizing. After the holiday, rising raw material prices (both feedstocks), combined with favorable monthly average phenol prices, led northern factories to take the lead in raising offers, fueling supplier optimism for higher quotes. However, due to slow resumption of downstream operations, transaction follow-up during the price hike was sluggish.

In March, geopolitical conflict drove prices up over 4,000 yuan/ton; in April, weak demand caused phenol to invert against pure benzene.

As tensions escalated in the Middle East in March, rising crude oil drove bulk chemical commodities higher. Phenol holders reacted quickly, with prices rising for six consecutive working days, gaining over 4,000 yuan/ton. End-users were cautious in chasing high prices. When both feedstock prices retreated from highs, the phenol market also turned downward, with buying halting and wait-and-see attitudes increasing. Due to unstable feedstock prices, phenol fluctuated frequently in late March, with fewer transactions. In April, phenol prices fell from highs. After a sharp drop and rebound in crude and pure benzene prices early in the month, phenol briefly saw mixed gains and losses. As demand took the lead, holders faced difficulty selling and offered discounts, reducing the correlation between phenol and pure benzene prices, and the spread between them inverted.

After the holiday, cost collapse combined with the impact of new capacity, while June maintenance provided support for a partial recovery.

During the May Day holiday, the impact of imported cargo arrivals was not significant. However, after the holiday, both feedstock prices fell. The news that Shandong Ruilin's phenol product had been successfully shipped for external sales slowed end-user interest. Suppliers struggled to move goods and kept offering concessions, leading to a wide decline in the market. In early June, rising feedstock prices prompted phenol suppliers to test higher offers, with fewer sellers willing to sell at low prices, which stimulated some inquiry participation. At the same time, product pick-up in Shandong was slow, easing supply pressure and supporting a brief price rally. In early June, news of planned feedstock plant maintenance spread to the phenol market, and suppliers reacted quickly by cautiously raising offers. Around mid-month, favorable news such as tightening spot supply in Shandong and factory price increases steadily pushed offers higher. In late June, the external environment caused feedstock prices to drop more sharply. End-users slowed inquiries, and suppliers faced increasing difficulty in selling, leading to a gradual expansion of the downtrend. At the end of the month, Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Longjiang Chemical successively shut down for maintenance, reducing the number of sellers willing to offer low prices. With some inquiry participation, prices ended the period on an upward note.

II. Second Half of 2026 Phenol Market Outlook: Expected to Weaken After an Initial Strength

Table 2: Factors Influencing Phenol Market Price in Second Half of 2026

Source: chempricehub

In the first half of 2026, the phenol market fluctuated frequently under the interaction of costs and supply-demand dynamics. In the second half, cost and supply-demand will remain the main factors influencing the market. In July-August, domestic phenol-ketone unit maintenance is relatively concentrated, providing a temporary supply-side boost to the market. Fluctuations in feedstock costs will affect market sentiment, but end-user buying will not be sustained, with procurement mainly on a cyclical basis. Mixed gains and losses will remain the general trend, with overall prices likely showing a relatively firm posture. In the fourth quarter, cost trends are expected to weaken. No exact information has been released on unit maintenance. Attention should be paid to the progress and startup expectations of the Fujian Zhongsha phenol-ketone unit. With no strong positive news factors apparent, the price trend is likely to be dominated by more declines than increases. In summary, the domestic phenol market in the second half of 2026 is expected to continue experiencing frequent ups and downs, with the price range likely between 6,600 and 7,800 yuan/ton.