Introduction: Entering May, the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market has been on a continuous decline. On one hand, the cost of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped, weakening cost support. On the other hand, downstream demand has accelerated its decline amid the falling price atmosphere, with terminal orders being sluggish. This has led to accumulating inventory pressure at polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer plants. From mid-May to June, demand is expected to gradually enter the seasonal off-season, supply will remain relatively ample, and with insufficient cost-driven momentum, the market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend.

Price: Costs and Supply-Demand Pressure Drive Continuous Monomer Price Declines

Since May, polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices have entered a downward channel. Upstream, the raw material ethylene market for ethylene oxide has been weak, with slow downstream demand release, leading to passive price declines. As of May 21, the price of ethylene oxide in the East China market had dropped to 7,600 RMB/ton, down 1,400 RMB/ton from the end of April, dragging down costs. Amid the bearish sentiment in the monomer market, terminal enterprises have shown resistance to current raw material prices, maintaining only hand-to-mouth purchasing without any intention of concentrated replenishment. This has weighed on polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market prices. As of May 21, the mainstream HPEG price in East China was 7,700-8,000 RMB/ton, with the low end down 1,500 RMB/ton and the high end down 1,600 RMB/ton from the end of April.

Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Price Comparison Table

| Product | Market | Specification | 2026/04/30 | 2026/05/21 | Change | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer | East China | EPEG | 9,200-9,600 | 7,700-8,000 | -1500 / -1600 | -16.3% / -16.67% | RMB/ton |
| Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer | East China | HPEG | 9,200-9,600 | 7,700-8,000 | -1500 / -1600 | -16.3% / -16.67% | RMB/ton |
| Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer | East China | TPEG | 9,300-9,700 | 7,800-8,100 | -1500 / -1600 | -16.13% / -16.49% | RMB/ton |

Cost: Upstream Ethylene Oxide Prices Weaken, Cost Support Shifts Downward

Due to the weakening and decline of ethylene oxide prices, costs have fallen from highs, releasing a bearish signal to the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market. With the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, domestic chemical products have experienced a collective decline since May, and the ethylene oxide market sentiment has turned strongly bearish. Although several units, including those at Yangzi Petrochemical, Taixing Jinyan, Far East Union, and Lianhong New Materials, have undergone concentrated maintenance, reducing on-site supply, market confidence has been dampened. Downstream demand is weak, and coupled with ample supply of raw material ethylene in the commodity flow, downstream buying interest is poor, putting downward pressure on prices. As of May 21, domestic ethylene prices had fallen to 7,900 RMB/ton, down 725 RMB/ton from the end of April. Meanwhile, the main price of imported Northeast Asian ethylene stood at 1,100 USD/ton, down 220 USD/ton from the end of April. Under these influences, the market price of ethylene oxide has declined rapidly. As of May 21, the ethylene oxide market price in East China had dropped to 7,600 RMB/ton, down 15.56% from April 21.

Supply: Losses Force Capacity Reduction; Industry Enters Passive Load Reduction

Entering May, the operating rate of the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry has remained low. As of May 21, the domestic capacity utilization rate of the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry stood at 27.61%, down 1.20 percentage points month-on-month and 9.19 percentage points year-on-year, significantly lower than the level of the same period in previous years. On-site spot supply growth is limited. Behind the low operating rate lies the harsh reality of sustained losses in the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer sector. As of May 21, despite the decline in ethylene oxide prices, costs remain high. The average weekly cost of HPEG in East China was 8,748.4 RMB/ton, down 572.6 RMB/ton week-on-week, while the average weekly profit of HPEG in East China was -638.4 RMB/ton, down 17.4 RMB/ton from the previous week. Most enterprises are operating below the breakeven point. Under the pressure of losses, the industry consensus has shifted to producing based on orders, controlling volumes to support prices. Enterprises are actively reducing loads or even shutting down production.

Demand: Bearish Sentiment and Weak Essential Demand Intertwine, Demand Negative Feedback Intensifies

In stark contrast to the contraction on the supply side, downstream demand is accelerating its shrinkage. The downstream demand for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer is mainly reflected through changes in the concrete industry. According to past patterns, entering May, with suitable temperatures across regions, the construction industry in various areas enters the peak season, and concrete shipment volumes generally increase. Currently, concrete shipment volumes have increased compared to April but have decreased year-on-year. As of May 21, the operating rate of concrete was 6.59%, down 0.30 percentage points month-on-month, and the shipment volume was 1,319,940 cubic meters, down 4.34% month-on-month. It is estimated that the total concrete shipment volume in May 2026 will be around 5.33 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decline of approximately 33%. Essential demand orders have further shrunk. Downstream players continue to hold a cautious, wait-and-see attitude toward raw material procurement. Cost transmission is obstructed, and the continuous decline in polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices intensifies the negative feedback loop of demand.

Market Dilemma: Supply-Demand Game Enters a Cycle

Looking at the current market situation, the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry is reducing operating rates due to losses, leading to supply contraction in an attempt to support prices. However, the current market supply appears ample. If prices do not stop falling, downstream resistance will grow stronger, purchasing willingness will decrease further, and demand will shrink even more. This demand contraction, in turn, leads to sluggish transactions in the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market, making it difficult for prices to rise. Consequently, monomer enterprises find it hard to improve profitability, and operating rates remain low.

Outlook: No Obvious Positive Factors in the Short Term; Focus on the Demand Turning Point

It is expected that in late May, the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market will maintain a stalemate pattern of relatively ample supply and weak demand. On the supply side, with some units undergoing maintenance and load reduction, the industry operating rate may see a slight decline. On the demand side, significant improvement in downstream orders is unlikely, monomer prices have not yet bottomed out, and downstream players' wait-and-see sentiment toward raw materials will not ease quickly. It is expected that polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices will continue to operate weakly in late May. Although June enters the off-season, many downstream end-user industries have already consumed their earlier inventories. If the decline in monomer prices slows, there may be some essential demand restocking. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in downstream demand and developments in geopolitical situations, and be alert to the risk of prices breaking downward due to continued demand deterioration.