January 30th - According to recent statistics, China's total methanol capacity has exceeded 110 million tons per year, with production in 2025 projected to reach approximately 88 million tons, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase. This has led to a severe supply-demand imbalance. In January, the industry operating rate stood at 65%–70%, with coal-based plants maintaining stable production while natural gas-based units reduced output due to seasonal maintenance during winter. Chempricehub's analysis of methanol assigns a bearish score of -1.5. The report highlights that China's total methanol capacity has surpassed 110 million tons per year, with 2025 production estimated at around 88 million tons, an 8.6% year-on-year increase. This indicates a substantial rise in supply, resulting in a severe supply-demand imbalance, which exerts significant downward pressure on spot prices. The oversupply may lead to inventory accumulation and price decline risks. In January, the industry operating rate ranged between 65% and 70%, with coal-based plants maintaining stable production while natural gas-based units reduced output due to winter maintenance. This partially alleviates supply pressure but is insufficient to offset the overall oversupply trend. In terms of methanol futures, the main contract, such as 2605 (Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange), closed at 2,352 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day, with a decrease in open interest, indicating a short-term technical rebound. However, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance may limit future gains and even trigger a correction risk. Therefore, the -1.5 score reflects a strong bearish impact, and it is recommended to monitor changes in the supply side.