As of January, the U.S. cotton supply and demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 marketing year indicates that both production and ending stocks have decreased compared to December. Production fell by over 2% month-on-month to 13.9 million bales, while ending stocks declined by 7% to 4.2 million bales. PriceSeek's analysis of cotton assigns a bullish-bearish score of 1.5. The reduction in U.S. cotton production for the 2025/26 marketing year by over 2% to 13.9 million bales and the 7% decline in ending stocks to 4.2 million bales suggest tightening supply, which is supportive of spot prices. Considering the latest cotton futures data (e.g., the closing price of the main contract 2605 at 14,625 yuan/ton and the settlement price at 14,565 yuan/ton), the supply reduction may drive future price increases, though attention should be paid to actual changes in market demand. The score of 1.5 reflects a moderate decline, representing a significant positive factor.
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