Recently, statistics show that China's total methanol capacity has exceeded 110 million tons per year, with production in 2025 estimated at approximately 88 million tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance. In January, the industry operating rate stood at 65%-70% (coal-based plants maintained stable production, while natural gas-based plants reduced output due to winter maintenance).

PriceSeek's analysis of methanol assigns a bearish score of -1.5. The report highlights that China's total methanol capacity has surpassed 110 million tons per year, with 2025 production expected to reach around 88 million tons, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase. This substantial growth in supply has led to a severe supply-demand imbalance, exerting significant downward pressure on spot prices, as oversupply may result in inventory accumulation and price decline risks.

In January, the industry operating rate ranged between 65% and 70%, with coal-based plants maintaining stable production while natural gas-based plants reduced output due to winter maintenance, partially alleviating supply pressure. However, this is insufficient to offset the overall oversupply trend.

In terms of methanol futures, the main contract, such as 2605 (Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange), closed at 2,352 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day, with a decrease in open interest, indicating a short-term technical rebound. Nevertheless, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance may limit future price increases and even trigger a correction risk.

Therefore, the -1.5 score reflects a strong bearish impact, and it is advisable to monitor changes in the supply side.