According to reports, the reduction in cotton planting areas in major countries in 2026, combined with the El Niño phenomenon, has intensified expectations of tighter cotton supply in the coming year. According to the latest forecasts, Brazil's planting area is projected to decrease by 5% year-on-year to 30.75 million mu; Australia's cotton planting area is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year to 6.09 million mu; China plans to reduce the cotton planting area in Xinjiang by approximately 10% to 36 million mu; and the intended cotton planting area in the United States is expected to drop by 2.9% year-on-year. Additionally, the APEC Climate Center has issued a warning that the El Niño phenomenon may form in mid-2024, potentially affecting cotton growth in countries such as India. If cotton consumption demand does not change significantly, the global cotton supply and demand structure is expected to shift from loose to tight balance in the coming year.

PriceSeek Analysis:
Lint Cotton, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
The article highlights the reduction in cotton planting areas in major countries (Brazil down 5%, Australia down 22%, China's Xinjiang down 10%, and the U.S. down 2.9%), combined with the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on cotton-producing regions such as India, leading to tighter cotton supply in the coming year. As the direct product of cotton after ginning, the spot price of lint cotton is highly dependent on the supply of raw cotton. A reduction in supply will increase the production cost and spot price of lint cotton. The supply and demand structure may shift from loose to tight balance, constituting a significant positive factor. A score of +1.5 indicates a generally significant positive impact, as the supply-side shock is notable, but actual demand changes need to be monitored.

Cotton Yarn, Bull-Bear Score: 1
Based on the article, expectations of tighter global cotton supply are strengthening. As a downstream product of cotton, the spot price of cotton yarn is directly influenced by the cost of raw cotton. If cotton consumption demand remains stable, rising costs will push up the spot price of cotton yarn. However, cotton yarn prices are also affected by yarn mill capacity and the elasticity of terminal demand, making the positive impact weaker compared to direct cotton products. A score of +1.0 indicates a generally positive factor, as cost-push effects exist but are not the dominant factor.

Cotton, Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
The article emphasizes the reduction in cotton planting areas in major countries and the risk of the El Niño phenomenon, intensifying expectations of tighter supply in the coming year. The supply and demand structure may shift to a tight balance, constituting a significant positive factor for cotton spot prices. Combined with futures data, recent cotton contracts (e.g., 2605 up +35.00, 2609 up +55.00) show an upward trend, with changes in open interest and trading volume reflecting bullish market sentiment. Futures prices are supported by expectations of reduced supply. Considering both spot and futures impacts, a score of +1.5 indicates a generally significant positive factor, as fundamental drivers are strong and futures data confirms the upward trend.