In January, the domestic bisphenol A (BPA) market emerged from the year-end sluggishness and exhibited a "first stable, then strong" recovery trend. At the beginning of the month, the market remained relatively stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. However, from mid-to-late January, multiple favorable factors, including cost, supply, and demand, converged and synergized, driving a rapid rebound in the market. Prices steadily climbed, with mainstream quotations rising to nearly 8,000 yuan per ton by the end of the month.

In early January, the domestic BPA market showed no clear unilateral trend, as bullish and bearish factors offset each other, maintaining overall stability. On the supply side, although some production facilities entered maintenance cycles, leading to a slight short-term reduction in supply, market expectations for new BPA production capacity in 2026 remained strong. Suppliers adopted a cautious approach, with limited willingness to offer discounts, which helped stabilize the market. On the cost side, international oil prices failed to sustain a continuous upward trend, while upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and phenol-ketone remained relatively stable, providing limited cost support for BPA. On the demand side, downstream industries were still in the tail end of the off-season. Epoxy resin demand remained subdued, and the polycarbonate (PC) industry had not yet initiated large-scale procurement, resulting in subdued market transactions. In East China, premium-grade BPA quotations hovered around 7,500 yuan per ton, with market stability maintained amid a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors.

After mid-January, the previously restraining bearish factors gradually dissipated, while favorable conditions in cost, supply, and demand continued to strengthen and synergize. The domestic BPA market completely reversed its earlier volatility and embarked on a rapid rebound. The cost side emerged as the primary driver, with escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushing international oil prices higher. Both WTI and Brent crude oil broke through $60 and $65 per barrel, respectively, directly driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and phenol-ketone. Phenol and acetone, as core raw materials for BPA production, account for over 70% of production costs. The sharp rise in raw material prices increased the theoretical production cost of BPA, forcing suppliers to maintain firm pricing.

Simultaneously, favorable supply-side developments emerged. While previously idled production facilities gradually resumed operations, some manufacturers faced raw material supply constraints, preventing them from reaching expected operating rates. As a result, market supply did not increase significantly, leading to a continued improvement in the supply-demand balance. On the demand side, downstream industries such as PC and epoxy resin gradually recovered, with operating rates steadily rising and procurement demand expanding. Market transaction activity significantly improved, further driving prices upward.

From a market perspective, the "first stable, then strong" trend in the BPA market in January was clear, driven by the synergistic effects of multiple favorable factors. Cost support, tightening supply, and recovering demand converged, enabling the market to break free from year-end weakness and achieve a steady rebound. In the short term, the BPA market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. If oil prices remain elevated, they will continue to provide support for the market. On the demand side, as downstream industries further increase their operating rates, procurement demand is expected to expand. However, attention should be paid to the progress of new production capacity and potential fluctuations in raw material prices. Future market trends will depend heavily on changes in the fundamentals of both upstream and downstream industries.