Capacity expansion concurrent with weakening operating rates: pressure from capacity commissioning looms in the second half of the year.

Lead: In the first half of 2026, while unsaturated polyester resin continued its expansion trend, most projects faced delays, resulting in limited overall capacity growth. Meanwhile, actual output and plant operating rates declined simultaneously, further intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry. The trend toward larger-scale and more centralized production became increasingly evident. In the second half of the year, at least three planned or under-construction capacity units are expected to be launched, mostly driven by established leading companies, continuously increasing pressure on medium-to-long-term supply growth.

In the first half of 2026, the unsaturated polyester resin market exhibited a significant divergence between supply and demand. Total domestic unsaturated polyester resin output in the first half of 2026 reached 1.44 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.86%, while the industry's average operating rate stood at 31%, down 5.6% from the same period last year. In terms of capacity, as of the first half of 2026, total domestic unsaturated polyester resin capacity had increased to 6.81 million tons, up 0.89% year-on-year. Although capacity expansion continued, the growth rate slowed markedly, and both actual output and plant utilization weakened simultaneously, further worsening the supply-demand contradiction in the industry.

Looking at monthly output changes: In February, due to weak demand and the Chinese New Year holiday, more enterprises halted production, leading to low production enthusiasm and suppressing consumption of unsaturated polyester resin. In January, pre-holiday stockpiling drove a notable increase in consumption. March recorded the largest monthly output increase in the first half of the year, mainly driven by the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. This brought multiple uncertainties to regional energy supply, shipping channels, and the operation of the chemical industry chain, subsequently causing sharp price rises in key raw materials such as styrene, maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and diethylene glycol. Driven by the market mentality of "buying on rising prices, avoiding on falling ones," output and shipments of unsaturated polyester resin kept climbing in March. According to Chempricehub's survey, feedback from downstream industries indicates that demand for unsaturated polyester resin has shrunk this year. Combined with low operating rates at end-users, downstream and end-user profits have declined, increasing resistance to high-priced raw materials. Cost pass-through to end users has been hindered, so overall demand improvement remains limited. Buyers dominate the market, and downstream and end-users have shortened their stockpiling cycles, generally adopting a strategy of purchasing on an as-needed basis and buying on price dips.

Table 1 Capacity Changes in the Unsaturated Polyester Resin Industry in the First Half of 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

Source: Chempricehub Intelligence