C5 Industry Chain Market Morning Briefing (20260910)

I. Key Points

1. The U.S.-Iran conflict shows no sign of easing, and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities have intensified, heightening supply risks and pushing international oil prices higher. NYMEX crude oil futures for October closed at $96.05/bbl, up $3.02/bbl, or +3.25%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for November closed at $101.21/bbl, up $3.29/bbl, or +3.36%. China’s INE crude oil futures 2610 contract rose 19.2 to 722.5 yuan/bbl, and rose 50.6 to 773.1 yuan/bbl in night trading.

2. As of the 9th, Japanese naphtha closed at $903.75/mt, up $9.25/mt from the previous trading day; Singapore naphtha closed at $96.18/bbl, up $0.94/bbl from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic major cracked C5 producers raised prices, with North China up 100 yuan/mt to 7,100 yuan/mt. Private enterprise auctions during the day were acceptable; the oil products sector is facing improved standardization practices, multi-component transactions were average during the day, and market sentiment was strongly wait-and-see. In deep processing, pentadiene monomer prices were firm, while resin end-use faced pressure.

4. Yesterday, the Shandong gasoline market rose overall, with a sales-to-production ratio of 103%. Mixed C5, a comparable product, remained stable and rangebound, quoted at 7,830 yuan/mt in Shandong. Market compliance is tightening; the cracked C5 residual liquid market remained stable and wait-and-see, with scattered plants making catch-up gains.

5. Yesterday, domestic piperylene plants held offers stable. Supported by rising residual liquid, the China index edged up. Downstream orders and price increases faced considerable resistance, and feedstock purchases remained on a just-in-time basis. Mainstream ex-works prices were 8,500–9,300 yuan/mt.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market was stable for the time being. Restart of maintenance units brought incremental supply, but the tight-supply pattern was difficult to change in the short term, and plants held prices firm. Demand from major downstream SIS end-users was weak, and their capacity to absorb high-priced feedstock was limited, so purchasing was mainly on a need-to basis. Mainstream bid/offer prices in East China were 13,200–13,800 yuan/mt.

7. Yesterday, dicyclopentadiene continued to rise, in the range of 8,300–8,900 yuan/mt. The low end was for stable customers, while spot prices tended toward the high end; a few small orders climbed above 9,000 yuan/mt. Spot supply remains tight, feedstock continued to rise, and the cost side was further solidified. In the short term, supply is unlikely to ease, and the high-price trend is expected to continue.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices of C5 petroleum resin for road marking paint were 9,300–10,300 yuan/mt. International oil prices continued to rise; domestic C5 resources were tight and prices were still expected to increase. Localized resin price inversions appeared, and northern demand continued to edge up, so negotiated prices continued to be pushed higher.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices of piperylene-based C5 petroleum resin for adhesives were 10,500–12,500 yuan/mt, and mainstream prices of decyclized C5 petroleum resin for adhesives were 10,000–10,800 yuan/mt. Spot volumes remained tight and costs continued to rise. Downstream risk aversion was also relatively strong, with purchases mostly meeting immediate needs. In the short term, shortages dominate, and negotiated prices continued to rise steadily.

Core logic: cracked C5 up, isoprene stable, piperylene stable, dicyclopentadiene up, C5 petroleum resin stable to slightly higher.

II. Price Table

Table 1 Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Summary Table (Unit: yuan/mt)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 prices are expected to remain firm. Shandong mixed C5 is at a high level, but there is still a price spread compared with cracked C5. At present, oil product market regulation is improving, and the impact on light components should be watched cautiously. From the perspective of pentadiene monomers, low monomer inventories support prices, but resin sales are mediocre, especially road marking paint resin, where demand is weak due to fewer construction projects.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to remain stable and rangebound. Overnight crude oil continued to strengthen, gasoline refineries have low inventories, and their ability to hold prices is relatively strong. With existing port orders, the mixed C5 market has support at the bottom. However, market operating standards have recently become stricter; considering all factors, Chempricehub Information expects cracked C5 residual liquid refineries to keep prices stable and rangebound today.

Overnight crude oil prices rose, boosting market participants’ willingness to enter the market. The gasoline market’s buying and selling atmosphere improved, and refineries may actively push prices higher. Despite the bullish market atmosphere, under the influence of market news, mixed C5 shipment sentiment fell back yesterday. Chempricehub Information expects the mixed C5 market to be weak and rangebound today.

Isoprene is expected to run firm. The tight supply pattern continues, and strengthening costs support plants’ intention to hold prices and sell cautiously. Prices are expected to remain firm.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate with an upward bias. Recently, costs have strengthened, and supported by lower plant output and higher self-use inventories, tradable resources in the market are limited. Piperylene is expected to continue running firm.

Dicyclopentadiene prices are expected to remain firm. Spot supply is tight and difficult to ease in the short term, and feedstock prices provide clear cost support. Although demand is expected to decline due to supply constraints and high prices, in the short term supply and cost factors dominate, and prices are expected to remain firm at high levels.

Downstream construction volume for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin is more concentrated in the north, and feedstock C5 prices have risen notably, so negotiated prices continue to edge higher. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, producers’ cost pressure is rising, and downstream immediate-need volumes are rising steadily. Given cost pressure, prices continue to edge higher.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2 Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 mt)