Bulls and bears battle at elevated levels; ethylene glycol surges then retreats

1. Daily Summary:

① MEG inventory at major East China ports stood at 114,000 tons, up by 8,000 tons compared to the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices declined, while coal prices remained stable.
③ Shipments from major East China ports increased compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic MEG Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 17, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 7,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 27. The closing delivered price in the South China market was 7,200 CNY/ton, remaining flat. The closing price in USD terms was 800 USD/ton, down by 15.

The MEG market exhibited a pattern of rising then falling today. At the morning open, spot prices in Zhangjiagang opened significantly higher around 7,450. However, willingness to chase highs at elevated levels was insufficient. Under profit-taking pressure, the market trended downward from intraday highs. This adjustment continued into the afternoon, shifting from gains to losses. By the close, spot transactions were negotiated around 7,180. The spot basis weakened from strong; it started the day around +1,180 for October contracts and fell to approximately +1,090 by the close. The South China market showed lackluster performance; although daily quotes were relatively high, downstream users maintained a wait-and-see approach, resulting in stagnant trading.

3. Spot Basis

The spot basis shifted from strong to weak, starting the day around +1,180 for October contracts and declining to approximately +1,090 by the close.

Table 2: Changes in Jiangsu Market Spot Basis (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Rates by Process for MEG (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 17, the overall domestic MEG operating rate was 62.16% (stable); integrated plants operated at 64.23% (stable); and coal-to-chemicals plants operated at 58.60% (stable).

As of February 2026, the total installed capacity of domestic MEG units was revised upward to 30.819 million tons. Among this, syngas-based MEG capacity remained stable at 11.30 million tons. Non-syngas capacity increased to 19.519 million tons due to the addition of BASF's Zhanjiang plant with an 800,000-ton capacity.

Table 4: Profit Margins by Process for MEG (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Shipment Status at Major Ports:
On September 16, 2026, daily shipments of MEG from a major warehouse zone in Zhangjiagang totaled 2,200 tons, a decrease of 13.73% compared to the previous period. Daily shipments from two major warehouse zones in Taicang totaled 4,400 tons, an increase of 33.33%.

Inventory Status at Major Ports (Updated on Mondays and Thursdays):
As of September 17, total MEG inventory in major East China ports stood at 114,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous update.
In detail: Zhangjiagang held 40,000 tons, Taicang 45,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou combined 14,000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu combined 15,000 tons.
Regarding shipments for this period: Zhangjiagang averaged 2,550 tons per day, and Taicang averaged 3,100 tons per day.

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of Inventory at East China Ports (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Sentiment Forecast from Upstream and Downstream Participants in Domestic MEG Market (Updated Every Thursday)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Future Outlook:

Geopolitical tensions have not shown significant signs of easing. MEG continues to receive support from both cost-side factors and supply constraints. The market is expected to remain predominantly strong in the short term. Tomorrow's ex-works spot price in East China is projected to range between 7,200 and 7,300 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Markets

1. Price Trends of Related Products

Table 7: Prices of Related Products in the Polyester Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Load Factors for Polyester-related Products:

PTA Load Factor: Stable at 72.08%, with a capacity base of 93.30 million tons/year.
Polyester Load Factor: Declined to 73.36%, with a capacity base of 90.415 million tons/year.

3. Intraday Sales Volume of Polyester Products:

Today (September 17, 2026), the average sales ratio for sample enterprises of polyester filament yarn (POY/FDY etc.) was 26.5%, a decrease of 8.0 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data. The polyester filament market oscillated at high levels; downstream resistance persisted, inquiries were sparse, and sales volumes remained low. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 30%, 10%, 20%, 25%, 25%, 20%, 10%, 0%, 25%, 20%, 15%, 15%, 20%, 40%, 30%, 27%, 30%, 30%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 40%, 10%, 20%, 20%, 15%, 20%, 20%, 40%.

Today (September 17, 2026), the sales ratio for direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories in China was 55.56%, an increase of 15.15 percentage points from the previous trading day. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 126%, 60%, 30%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 0%, 0%.

Today (September 17, 2026), the sales ratio for sample enterprises of domestic polyester chips was 8.67%, a decrease of 5.65 percentage points from the previous period (September 16, 2026). Tight supply coupled with weak momentum for chasing higher prices among downstream users led to continued sluggish transactions. Specific sales ratios were as follows: 30%, 15%, 15%, 10%, 20%, 0%, 5%, 0%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)