【Introduction】 Supply is gradually loosening. The Northeast region is expected to enter a concentrated maintenance period, with operating rates anticipated to decline. Demand for baijiu remains tepid, while demand from the chemical and downstream sectors is expected to show a recovery trend. Overall, the market is experiencing a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term.

Edible Ethanol:
In Northeast China, Jilin corn ethanol prices have fallen, and Heilongjiang ethanol prices have also declined. This period saw a decrease in on-site supply. At Hongzhan, four plants are operating, the Jixian plant has one line shut down, and Bayan is idle. Wanli is running normally; COFCO Zhaodong is producing fuel ethanol; Zhongke Gelin is stable; Shenglong has switched to a small line. In Jilin, Fukang plants are running lines 3 and 4 with line 2 shut down; Jilin Xintianlong is producing; Dongfenghualiang plant is idle. SDIC Jidong, Hailun, and Tieling plants are operating normally. Jilin's major ethanol plant is in production. In Henan, three plants in Mengzhou are operating normally; Sichuan Hongzhan plant is in production.

On the cost front, the national average corn price has declined. Corn prices in Northeast China have risen, while corn prices in Henan have fallen. In Heilongjiang, some factories have a positive attitude toward shipments, but downstream demand is limited, leading to a bearish sentiment and lower factory quotes. In Jilin, factory shipments are poor, and quotes have dropped. In East China, cassava ethanol prices have fallen, with nearby prices also declining. Additionally, freight rates have dropped, leading to a significant decline in delivered prices. Local supplies have followed the downward trend, and delivered prices for downstream chemical users have fallen. In Shandong, delivered prices have declined, while some downstream users in Jiangsu primarily consume coal-based ethanol.

In Henan, premium-grade ethanol prices have fallen slightly. Ethanol plants in the Mengzhou area are operating normally; downstream buyers are purchasing on a need basis. Daily production is being absorbed, and prices have weakened slightly before stabilizing.

In Sichuan, the ethanol market is stable. The Sichuan Hongzhan plant is operating normally this period. Downstream baijiu demand has entered the off-season, with factory quotes remaining stable and trading volumes weak.

In South China, prices have fallen. There is limited spot supply of cassava ethanol in South China. COFCO Guangxi's plant is running at a low load; Xintiande plant is operating normally; Jinyuan plant is idle. Downstream buyers and intermediaries show weak purchasing interest, partly consuming lower-cost coal-based ethanol, leading to lower transaction prices. Molasses ethanol supply is limited, with some factories selling from inventory at high prices.

Fuel Ethanol:
In Northeast China, fuel ethanol factory prices have risen. Heilongjiang Hongzhan's fuel output is stable; Bayan plant is idle; Heilongjiang Wanli Runda's output is stable. SDIC Hailun has a planned short-term shutdown; Jidong plant is normal; Tieling plant is producing; Zhaodong COFCO plant is normal; Jilin fuel plant is producing; Anhui COFCO is producing. Major buyers are fulfilling previous orders, and factory inventory levels are high. As of press time, the latest delivered fuel ethanol prices in Heilongjiang are 6,467–6,567 yuan/ton (high end includes delivery). In Liaoning, delivered fuel ethanol is priced at 6,677 yuan/ton. In Jilin, delivered fuel ethanol is 6,595 yuan/ton.

Domestic Ethanol Supply-Demand Balance Sheet (Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Data Type | Metric | This Period | Previous Period | Change | Next Period Trend |
|---------------------|--------------------------|-------------|----------------|--------|-------------------|
| Supply | Ethanol Production (10kt)| 20.21 | 22.27 | -2.06 | ↓ |
| | Imports (10kt) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | → |
| | Total Supply (10kt) | 20.21 | 22.27 | -2.06 | ↓ |
| Demand | Domestic Consumption (10kt)| 21.50 | 22.10 | -0.60 | ↓ |
| | Exports (10kt) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | → |
| | Total Demand (10kt) | 21.50 | 22.12 | -0.62 | ↓ |
| Supply-Demand Gap | Weekly Theoretical Balance| 0.15 | 0.15 | -1.44 | Turns negative with decreasing absolute value |

Source: chempricehub

This period, on-site supply declined. At Hongzhan Jixian, one line was shut down; Bayan is idle; others are normal. Wanli is producing normally; COFCO Zhaodong is producing fuel ethanol; Zhongke Gelin is stable; Shenglong switched to a small line. Jilin Fukang plants are running lines 3 and 4, with line 2 shut down; Jilin Xintianlong is producing; Dongfenghualiang plant is idle. SDIC Jidong, Hailun, and Tieling plants are operating normally; Jilin's major ethanol plant is producing. In Henan, three plants in Mengzhou are operating normally; Sichuan Hongzhan plant is producing. Coal-based ethanol output has declined. Shandong plants are operating steadily; Shaanxi Yulin Shenneng is running at a low load; Xinghua plant is at 30% load; Yulin Kaiyue is operating stably. Anhui Tuesday plant is shut down; Guangdong plant is normal; Yulin Kaiyue plant is normal. Henan Anyang is stable; Henan Yongcheng is normal. Jingmen Yuanhan plant is producing; Hunan plant is producing; Xinjiang Tianye plant is producing.

Fermentation ethanol plant supply is declining, with output falling. Coal-based ethanol output is stable. This period, edible and industrial ethanol production totaled 202,100 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 53.13%, down 5.42% from the previous period.

Ethanol Regional Operating Rate Changes

| Region | This Period | Previous Period | Change |
|-------------|-------------|-----------------|---------|
| Northeast | 75.68% | 82.66% | -6.98% |
| North China | 40.06% | 40.06% | 0.00% |
| East China | 51.97% | 56.22% | -4.26% |
| South China | 27.90% | 27.90% | 0.00% |
| Central China | 22.46% | 29.68% | -7.22% |
| Northwest | 65.36% | 65.36% | 0.00% |
| Southwest | 44.20% | 44.20% | 0.00% |
| Total | 53.13% | 58.55% | -5.42% |

Source: chempricehub

Outlook for the Next Period: In the short term, supply-side fermentation ethanol supply will decline, with fuel ethanol plants in the Northeast experiencing shutdowns. Coal-based ethanol output will recover slightly, and the Anhui plant is expected to resume production next week.