Preface: Driven by a favorable external atmosphere before the holiday, coupled with restocking activities and the still-open arbitrage window from Shandong to surrounding regions, refineries achieved smooth shipments and successful destocking, entering the holiday at high prices. During the holiday period, high prices hindered refinery sales due to falling crude oil, but price reductions later led to a recovery in transactions.

I. Comparison of International Crude Oil and Aromatics Prices During the May Day Holiday

Table 1: Comparison of International Crude Oil and Related Product Prices (USD/barrel)

| Product | April 29 | May 5 | Change |
|-----------|----------|--------|--------|
| WTI | 106.88 | 102.27 | -4.61 |
| Brent | 118.03 | 109.87 | -8.16 |

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to influence international oil prices. During the holiday period, both the US and Iran confirmed that the ceasefire period remained in effect, easing market concerns about supply risks following potential friction over the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices declined overall.

Table 2: Comparison of International Aromatics Product Prices (USD/ton)

| Product | Price Type | April 29 | May 5 | Change |
|-----------------|---------------|----------|--------|--------|
| Naphtha | CFR Japan | 1044 | 1043 | -1 |
| Toluene | FOB Korea | 1034 | 1086 | 52 |
| Xylene | FOB Korea | 1078 | 1105 | 27 |
| Benzene | FOB Korea | 1119 | 1129 | 10 |
| Paraxylene | CFR China | 1267 | 1280 | 13 |
| Styrene Monomer | FOB Korea | 1355 | 1335 | 0 |

During the holiday period, the Chinese market was closed. The US dollar market did not weaken alongside crude oil declines; aromatics products generally maintained an upward trend. Although the Asia-to-US arbitrage for toluene and xylene closed, the benzene arbitrage between Asia and the US remained open.

According to assessment data, South Korea exported a total of 139,147 tons of benzene in April, of which 112,607 tons went to China, 18,000 tons to the US, and 8,540 tons to Japan. By the same metric, from April 1-30, 2025, South Korea's total benzene exports were 247,500 tons, with 235,497 tons to China and 12,003 tons to Taiwan, China.

II. Comparison of Shandong Benzene Prices and Trading Volumes During the May Day Holiday

Table 3: Comparison of Shandong Benzene Prices and Trading Volumes (Cny/ton, Tons)

| Item | April 30 | May 1 | May 2 | May 3 | May 4 | May 5 |
|------------------------|----------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Benzene Ex-Works Reference Price | 8640 | 8700 | 8650 | 8625 | 8590 | 8650 |
| Benzene Delivered Reference Price | 8725 | 8700 | 8660 | 8660 | 8660 | 8750 |
| Benzene Trading Volume | 4100 | 1100 | 500 | 400 | 5800 | 4500 |

After entering the holiday, local refineries continued the pre-holiday trend by raising offering prices. However, they encountered obstacles from both weakening crude oil and transportation restrictions during the holiday, resulting in significantly hindered transactions. After three consecutive days of lowering ex-factory prices, crude oil rebounded on May 4, boosting transaction volumes. After three days of subdued sales, Shandong saw two days of robust trading. Holiday prices are for reference only and are not included in the Chempricehub transaction price statistics.

III. Forecast for the First Day After the Holiday

During the final two days of the holiday, refinery shipments were smooth. Despite the decline in crude oil, the market offering is expected to remain stable or increase slightly compared to May 5. Overall, as major refineries shift from oil to chemicals, benzene production in May is expected to increase. Moreover, the toluene-benzene price spread is sufficient to support the shutdown of toluene-to-benzene units in Shandong and North China. It is expected that the supply side in the northern market will face pressure, and prices will continue to be dominated by the feasibility of the Shandong-East China arbitrage.