Lead: During this period, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market exhibited strong momentum, with the price center achieving a steady upward trajectory. The overall market conditions can be characterized as "tight spot supply, positive expectations, and active trading." On the supply side, delayed output following unit restarts was the direct cause of tightened spot availability; meanwhile, the approaching concentrated delivery window for export orders significantly boosted market sentiment from both demand expectations and risk-appetite perspectives. Although the tone of fundamental demand from end-users remained unchanged, the sustained price increases effectively "forced" downstream enterprises to moderately accelerate their restocking pace, further reinforcing upward support for the short-term market.
I. Supply Side: Output Recovery Falls Short of Expectations, Spot Supply Remains Tight
From the supply perspective, several major units that had previously undergone maintenance shutdowns have successively completed their turnaround cycles and entered the restart phase. The market had broadly anticipated a sequential increase in supply. However, actual operating conditions reveal that units require a certain commissioning period to transition from restart to stable, high-load production, limiting the effectively available output in the short term.
II. Demand Side: Domestic and Foreign Demand Converge, Rigid Demand Accelerates Involuntarily
The demand side exhibits characteristics of "stable domestic, strong external, and accelerated rigid demand."
1. Concentrated Release of Export Demand, Significant Sentiment Boost. As the execution period for export orders approaches, overseas downstream customers have concentrated their stocking demand to hedge against risks of potential logistics and raw material cost fluctuations. Foreign trade negotiations are active, with prices for new orders rising accordingly. This not only directly absorbed a portion of domestic supply but, more importantly, strengthened domestic market participants' optimistic outlook. The superposition of market expectations and substantive foreign trade stocking demand has formed a combined effect.
2. Downstream Rigid Demand Under Pressure, Restocking Pace Passively Accelerated. End-user industries generally maintain low raw material inventory levels, with most small and medium-sized enterprises adhering strictly to a "procure-as-needed" strategy. However, faced with persistently rising spot prices, difficulty in sourcing spot goods, and the bullish atmosphere stimulated by foreign trade positives, downstream enterprises' psychological resistance is weakening. Some plants, concerned that further price increases will significantly compress their production margins, are being compelled to moderately advance their original procurement plans, even slightly increasing additional inventory. The spread of this "buy on rising prices, not on falling" mentality has notably accelerated the pace of rigid demand procurement compared to earlier periods. Acceptance of higher-priced materials is gradually improving, providing strong positive feedback from the demand side to the market rally.
III. Cost Side: Rising Raw Materials Provide Certain Support
The upstream markets for propylene oxide and methanol also rose during this period. However, the cost-side impetus on dimethyl carbonate was relatively moderate and was not the core driver of this round of increases. The robust uptrend in DMC prices effectively improved producers' processing margins, with industry profitability experiencing a modest recovery.
IV. Future Outlook and Risk Warnings
In summary, the core contradiction in the current DMC market lies in the short-term mismatch between "tight spot liquidity" and "converging domestic and foreign demand." In the near term, the situation where factories prioritize contract fulfillment and concentrate on export order deliveries is unlikely to change significantly. The tight spot market condition is expected to persist at least until the end of this month or early next month. It is anticipated that the domestic DMC market will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term, with the price center retaining room for further modest upward exploration. Market trading activity is expected to remain brisk, driven by the prevailing buying-on-strength sentiment.
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