Introduction: Before the May Day holiday, a slight improvement in costs provided a positive driver. Benzene supply was marginally below demand. With positive market sentiment, the market experienced a modest uptick amid fluctuations. During the holiday, some downstream producers reduced output, weakening demand, while supply remained relatively stable. This may lead to a temporary oversupply. However, demand is expected to recover after the holiday. The supply-demand dynamics in the benzene market remain contested. If crude oil and foreign currency prices do not drop sharply during the holiday, benzene prices are expected to show a firm-to-sided consolidation trend in the short term after the holiday.

1. Market Review (April 27 - April 30)

[Figure 1: Price trend chart for major domestic benzene markets (Unit: Yuan/ton) - omitted]

[Data source: chempricehub News - omitted]

Table 1: Domestic benzene and related product price list

| Product | Region/Category | 4/30 | 4/23 | Change | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil | Brent | 109.58 | 97.13 | 12.45 | 12.82% | USD/barrel |
| Styrene | Jiangsu ex-works | 10134 | 10088 | 46 | 0.46% | Yuan/ton |
| CFR China | 1308 | 1296.5 | 11.5 | 0.89% | USD/ton | |
| Shandong ex-works | 9864 | 9835 | 29 | 0.29% | Yuan/ton | |
| North China delivered | 9935 | 9937 | -2 | -0.02% | Yuan/ton | |
| South China delivered | 10299 | 10357 | -58 | -0.56% | Yuan/ton | |
| Pure Benzene | CFR China | 1098.8 | 1104 | -5.2 | -0.47% | USD/ton |
| East China | 8658 | 8681 | -23 | -0.26% | Yuan/ton | |
| Shandong | 8472.8 | 8477.6 | -4.8 | -0.06% | Yuan/ton | |
| Sinopec East China | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | |
| Hydrogenated Benzene | Shandong | 8546 | 8528 | 18 | 0.21% | Yuan/ton |
| Ethylene | CFR Northeast Asia | 1333 | 1382 | -49 | -3.55% | USD/ton |
| PS | East China 525 | 10460 | 10400 | 60 | 0.58% | Yuan/ton |
| EPS | East China General | 11150 | 11390 | -240 | -2.11% | Yuan/ton |
| ABS | East China HI-121H | 12290 | 13560 | -1270 | -9.37% | Yuan/ton |

Before the May Day holiday, the weekly average price of styrene in the Jiangsu market rose slightly by 0.46%. Continued concerns over geopolitical tensions supported crude oil strength; ethylene weakened, while pure benzene fluctuated downward before posting a small consecutive gain, providing adequate cost support at the bottom for styrene. In the styrene market, multiple factors were at play: destocking at ports, month-end contract delivery buying, poor spot demand, and profit-taking/liquidation. Driven by firming costs and a slight supply deficit in the market, mainstream styrene prices edged up with fluctuations during the week.

2. Data Analysis

[Figure 2: Domestic styrene production margin and price trend chart (Unit: Yuan/ton) - omitted]

[Data source: chempricehub News] Analysis of domestic styrene margins: According to calculations based on data from chempricehub News, in the week before the May Day holiday, the theoretical weekly average profit for domestic non-integrated styrene units was -549 Yuan/ton, an increase of 169 Yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The loss narrowed by -23.54%, indicating a reduction in production and sales losses.

Table 2: Domestic benzene and related product data list

| Product Name | | 2026/4/30 | 2026/4/23 | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Styrene | Inventory | 16.08 | 18.18 | -2.1 | -11.55% | 10k tons |
| Gross Profit | -549 | -718 | 169 | 23.54% | Yuan/ton | |
| Output | 36.1 | 36.09 | 0.01 | 0.03% | 10k tons | |
| Capacity Utilization | 71.97% | 71.94% | +0.03 pct pts | -- | -- | |
| Key Downstream | | | | | | |
| EPS | Capacity Utilization | 55.53% | 60.35% | -4.82% | | |
| PS | Capacity Utilization | 47.20% | 49.10% | -1.90% | | |
| ABS | Capacity Utilization | 60.20% | 60.10% | 0.10% | | |
| UPR | Capacity Utilization | 33.00% | 36.00% | -3.00% | | |
| SBR | Capacity Utilization | 63.78% | 63.78% | 0.00% | | |

[Data source: chempricehub News - omitted]

In the week before the May Day holiday, the total consumption of styrene by its main downstream sectors (EPS, PS, ABS) in China was 242,600 tons, down 10,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.03%. Among the output of the three major downstream plants, ABS saw a slight increase, while PS and EPS experienced a more significant reduction.

[Figure 3: Comparison chart of operating rates for domestic styrene and its main downstream sectors - omitted]

[Data source: chempricehub News - omitted]

Before the May Day holiday, styrene and its major downstream sectors: Most major styrene downstream sectors reduced output, leading to a decline in overall styrene demand. EPS showed the most significant output reduction. According to data from the week before the holiday, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.53%, down 4.82% from the previous week. Inventory pressure became apparent, and combined with the May Day holiday, some units experienced short-term shutdowns, resulting in a substantial drop in overall operating rates.

3. Post-Holiday Outlook

Table 3: Domestic styrene data forecast form

| | | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/7E | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil | | 109.58 | 113.5 | 3.92 | 3.58% | USD/barrel |
| Pure Benzene | | 8658 | 8850 | 192 | 2.22% | Yuan/ton |
| Styrene | | 10134 | 10250 | 116 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton |
| Styrene Inventory | | 16.08 | 17 | 0.92 | 5.72% | 10k tons |
| Styrene Production | | 36.1 | 36.53 | 0.43 | 1.19% | 10k tons |
| Styrene Imports | | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -- | 10k tons |
| Styrene Exports | | 4 | 3 | -1 | -25.00% | 10k tons |
| Major Downstream Demand | | 24.26 | 22.2 | -2.06 | -8.49% | 10k tons |

[Data source: chempricehub News - omitted]

Forecast for the holiday period and the short-term post-holiday: Crude oil is expected to remain strong. The core logic for oil price trends is: the US-Iran negotiations have not resumed, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains problematic, and geopolitical supply risks persist, providing support for oil prices. Stronger crude oil is expected to drive pure benzene firmer, strengthening the cost support base for styrene. Looking at fundamental styrene market news, the May Day holiday will temporarily lead to a slight increase in domestic styrene output and overall port inventory. Demand from major downstream sectors and export volumes are expected to decrease. Supply may slightly exceed demand in the short term. However, the overall difference between supply and demand is expected to be relatively small. After the May Day holiday, a recovery and improvement in styrene market demand is anticipated. Overall, the bull-bear battle in the styrene market remains intense. Comprehensive expectations point towards more upside than downside for the styrene market after the May Day holiday. Focus should be on guidance from crude oil, costs, and capital flows. The mainstream spot price in Jiangsu is expected to range between 10,000-10,500 Yuan/ton.