Introduction: Before the May Day holiday, the domestic acetone market saw an upward shift in focus. As of the end of April, the negotiation center of gravity for acetone in East China was near 7,800 yuan/ton, with the monthly average price rising by 19.69% month-on-month. On the cost side, benzene continued to climb, pulling the acetone market upward. Meanwhile, reduced import volumes combined with lower domestic unit operating rates meant there was no pressure on spot supply. Downstream industries actively stockpiled ahead of the holiday, and real orders were released at a decent pace. Overall, the acetone market was optimistic before the holiday, with the center of gravity remaining firm and moving upward.

1. Market Review (April 24 - April 30)

| Market | Product | April 30 | April 24 | Change | % Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Key Upstream | | | | | |
| | Benzene (East China) | 8865 | 8645 | 220 | 2.54% |
| | Propylene (Shandong) | 9630 | 9300 | 330 | 3.55% |
| Acetone | | | | | |
| | Acetone (East China) | 7800 | 7625 | 175 | 2.30% |
| | Acetone (North China) | 7875 | 7300 | 575 | 7.88% |
| | Acetone (South China) | 7850 | 7200 | 650 | 9.03% |
| | Acetone (Shandong) | 7800 | 7575 | 225 | 2.97% |
| Key Downstream | | | | | |
| | Bisphenol A (East China) | 9800 | 9750 | 50 | 0.51% |
| | MMA (East China) | 12400 | 13300 | -900 | -6.77% |
| | Isopropanol (East China) | 8650 | 8525 | 125 | 1.47% |
| | MIBK (East China) | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% |

Before the May Day holiday, raw materials benzene and propylene were both in an upward channel, providing clear cost-side support. The related product phenol performed weakly, and phenol-ketone plants were mired in losses. Petrochemical companies raised acetone list prices in succession to cope. Downstream end-users actively stockpiled before the holiday, while holders were reluctant to sell, leading to higher offers. The operating rate of domestic phenol-ketone units remained at 85%. The acetone port inventory in Jiangyin was around 27,000 tons, meaning there was little pressure from the supply side. Overall market trading sentiment was active, with real transaction volumes expanding, supporting a firm market focus.

2. Data Analysis

According to calculations by chempricehub, as of April 30, the phenol-ketone profit for Sinopec East China enterprises was -948 yuan/ton, an increase of 292 yuan/ton from April 23. This week, Sinopec's benzene listing price was raised by 150 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton, while Sinopec East China's propylene price was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The phenol-ketone cost was 14,215 yuan/ton. Sinopec East China's phenol list price was cut by 100 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton, and its acetone list price was raised by 850 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton. As a result, the theoretical loss margin for phenol-ketone enterprises narrowed.

| Market | Product | April 30 | April 24 | % Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Acetone | Operating Rate | 85% | 84% | +1% |
| | Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 2.7 | 2.85 | -0.15 |
| | Production Margin (yuan/ton) | -948 | -1154 | +17.85% |
| Benzene | Operating Rate | 67.69% | 69.48% | -1.79% |
| Bisphenol A | Operating Rate | 69.23% | 69.42% | -0.19% |
| MMA | Operating Rate | 54% | 53% | +1% |
| Isopropanol | Operating Rate | 69.53% | 64.24% | +5.29% |
| MIBK | Operating Rate | 44.69% | 51.40% | -6.71% |

According to statistics from chempricehub, at the end of April, the phenol-ketone unit at Moller Chemical (Shanghai) was shut for maintenance, and Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I phenol-ketone unit was also shut for maintenance. The domestic phenol-ketone unit operating rate was at 85%. The upstream benzene unit operating rate decreased slightly month-on-month.

Looking at downstream industries, the operating rate of the key downstream bisphenol A decreased by 0.19 percentage points. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical finished melting, Guangxi Huayi was still melting, and Longjiang Chemical finished melting during the week. These factors offset each other, leading to a slight decline in bisphenol A output this week. Some units at Zhejiang Petrochemical resumed operation, raising the ACH-based MMA operating rate by 1 percentage point to 54%. Acetone hydrogenation isopropanol increased by 5.29 percentage points to 69.53%, mainly because Hubei Jubang's unit resumed normal operation. Anhui Zhonghuifa stopped for three days, while Ningbo Zhenyang resumed and restarted on the 29th. The overall MIBK industry operating rate fell by 6.71 percentage points to 44.69%.

From the comparison of upstream and downstream operating rate changes, the phenol-ketone unit operating rate changed little. With no current pressure on domestic supply, market participants have an optimistic outlook.

3. Post-Holiday Forecast

| | April 30 | May 6 (E) | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Operating Rate | 85% | 85% | 0% |
| Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 2.7 | 3.2 | +18.52% |

Considering the pre-holiday cost recovery, supply-side maintenance, and demand rebound, the domestic acetone market is expected to show a pattern of volatile strength after the holiday, with short-term upward momentum.

On the first trading day after the holiday, holders are strongly inclined to quote high. Supported by the absence of supply pressure at the end of April and cost recovery, market participants are stable in sentiment. Downstream industries are mainly consuming inventories and making just-in-time restocking. After acetone prices rise, transaction volumes will need to follow.

After the holiday, the market is mixed with bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, phenol-ketone unit maintenance and load reduction in late April led to a decline in industry operating rates. At the same time, import volumes decreased, port inventories continued to decline, and spot circulation became relatively tight.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are entering a restocking cycle for just-in-time needs, with procurement demand releasing slowly. However, overall, procurement remains need-based.

On the cost side, a slight rebound in international crude oil before the holiday drove benzene prices up, amplifying the cost support for phenol-ketone production. However, the ability of upstream raw materials to pass through costs downstream needs attention.

In terms of market participant sentiment, with the phased price rebound, holders have a stronger willingness to support prices, and market trading sentiment may improve compared to April.

In the short term, chempricehub estimates that acetone prices in East China will fluctuate in the range of 7,800-8,000 yuan/ton. If downstream restocking intensifies after the holiday, prices may test the breakout range above 8,000 yuan/ton. If demand follow-up is insufficient, the market may find equilibrium within the consolidation range.