Preface:
Domestic isopropanol prices rose slightly ahead of the holiday, supported by higher feedstock costs and pre-holiday restocking demand from end users. Traders’ sentiment improved, and producers raised their quotations in tandem, pushing the market's trading center upward. However, as the phase of concentrated buying concluded, market activity cooled, and high-priced cargoes saw limited follow-through transactions. Prices then entered a period of stalemate. After the holiday, the isopropanol market is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment sentiment, crude oil movements during the break, and inventory levels at various plants.

1. Market Review

Table 1: Domestic Isopropanol and Related Product Price List

| Product/Region | 2025/4/30 | 2025/4/23 | Change Value | Change (%) | Unit |
|----------------------------|-----------|-----------|--------------|------------|-------|
| Key Regions | | | | | |
| East China | 8,650 | 8,400 | 250 | 2.98% | CNY/t |
| South China | 8,800 | 8,450 | 350 | 4.14% | CNY/t |
| Key Feedstocks | | | | | |
| Acetone | 7,800 | 7,275 | 300 | 2.05% | CNY/t |
| Propylene | 9,550 | 9,500 | -600 | -3.43% | CNY/t |

Just before the May Day holiday, the East China isopropanol market edged up. The rise in acetone costs gave production plants stronger cost support, prompting them to raise quotations slightly. At the same time, end users’ pre-holiday restocking needs boosted trader sentiment, and offers also increased, jointly lifting the market’s trading center. But after the procurement phase ended, market activity subsided, high-priced cargoes saw limited follow-up, and prices entered a stagnant consolidation phase. The South China market also moved up in tandem. Downstream factories mainly purchased on a need-to basis, and overall transaction sentiment was lukewarm. Holders mostly followed the market, actual trading volumes were mediocre, and market participants generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting clearer future trends.

Key Feedstock Market: Before the holiday, the spot acetone market pushed higher. With upstream raw materials remaining firm, cost-side support was strong, and petrochemical plants successively raised acetone contract prices, providing a floor for the market. Terminal factories accelerated their pre-holiday restocking pace, holders were reluctant to sell, and offers climbed accordingly. Overall trading sentiment was optimistic, and actual transaction volumes were released, supporting the continuation of the upward trend. The other feedstock, propylene, also strengthened, with a firm overall trend. This was mainly due to strong cost support and a tight supply-demand balance, both of which boosted market prices.

2. Data Analysis

Table 2: Domestic Isopropanol Product Data Sheet

| Product | Metric | 2025/4/30 | 2025/4/23 | Change Value | Change (%) | Unit |
|--------------------------|-------------|-----------|-----------|--------------|------------|-------|
| Isopropanol Gross Margin | Acetone-based | -150 | 125 | -275 | -220.00% | CNY/t |
| | Propylene-based | 679 | 465 | 214 | 46.02% | CNY/t |
| Isopropanol Operating Rate | Acetone-based | 74% | 69% | -- | +5% | |
| | Propylene-based | 50% | 50% | -- | 0.00% | |

From a profitability perspective, the gross margins of the two isopropanol production routes diverged, mainly because the price trends of the two feedstocks differed, leading to varying cost pressures on producers. The increase in acetone prices far exceeded that of isopropanol, so the profit margin for acetone-based plants narrowed significantly, pushing them into losses. In contrast, the rise in propylene prices was smaller than the isopropanol price increase, resulting in a slight expansion of margins for propylene-based plants, which remained profitable.

Before the holiday, the operating rate of the isopropanol industry increased modestly, mainly driven by acetone-based units. As some previously idled units resumed operation, the operating rate of acetone-based isopropanol plants rose notably. Propylene-based unit operating rates fluctuated little and remained generally stable.

Overall, the isopropanol market saw increased supply, while demand was relatively average, resulting in a looser supply-demand balance.

3. Post-Holiday Outlook

Table 3: Domestic Isopropanol Data Forecast Sheet

| Product | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change (%) |
|------------------------------|-----------|-----------|------------|
| Isopropanol Capacity Utilization | 64% | 67% | +3% |
| Phenol-Acetone Capacity Utilization | 85% | 85% | 0.00% |

After the holiday, the isopropanol industry’s operating rate is expected to increase. Additionally, some enterprises may have accumulated inventory during the break, so actual post-holiday destocking needs to be monitored.

The isopropanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range after the holiday, influenced by several factors:

1. Supply side: Industry operating rates are expected to rise, and with some domestic cargoes arriving by sea, spot supply in the market will be ample.
2. Demand side: Downstream factories will continue to purchase on a need-to basis. Market transaction sentiment is unlikely to improve significantly, and volumes will remain subdued. Export inquiries have cooled; most plants are executing earlier orders, with limited new orders.
3. Cost side: Both feedstock prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support to producers.

In summary, although demand is lackluster, the support from feedstock costs makes it unlikely for isopropanol prices to fluctuate significantly. Prices are expected to continue moving in a range-bound pattern. Subsequent attention should focus on changes in feedstock prices and the pace of downstream demand follow-through.