2026 Ethanol Post-Holiday Outlook

【Introduction】
The ethanol market has recently presented a tug-of-war between "strong expectations" and "weak realities." Within the sector, ethanol from different feedstocks is showing divergent trends: biological fermentation ethanol profits have turned from gains to losses, while coal-to-ethanol continues to operate profitably, and fuel ethanol from biological fermentation remains profitable. On the demand side, a divergence has emerged—baijiu (white spirit) demand is gradually weakening as the weather warms, chemical demand is entering the peak season of the first half of the year, and terminal solvent demand is improving.

1. Market Review (April 27–April 30)

(Table 1: Domestic ethanol and related product price list)

Fermentation ethanol: This month, the national operating rate increased slightly, with biological fermentation ethanol capacity rising. In Northeast China, major producers raised operating rates in the latter part of the period. In East China, only Jiangsu Huating maintained low-load production at its cassava ethanol plant; Anhui Wanshen operated normally. In the Northeast, Heilongjiang Hongzhan and Wanli slightly increased their unit loads, while Guotou Jidong, Guotou Hailun, and Tieling (shut down for about one week) remained stable. Jilin Fuel operated normally; Jilin Fukang's Line 3 and Line 4 ran normally; Jilin Xintianlong operated normally; other plants in the Northeast maintained normal production. In the Mengzhou area of Henan, Houyuan ran normally, while Huaxing and Hanyong resumed production after short-term shutdowns. Guangxi operations were stable: COFCO Guangxi's load was not high, Guangxi Jinyuan and Guangxi Xintiande produced normally, and all molasses ethanol plants have shut down. Raw material prices continued to hover at high levels, and the increase in supply further exacerbated the oversupply situation, leading to downward pressure on some transactions.

Coal-to-ethanol: In April, coal-to-ethanol prices fell from their highs. Supply decreased this month due to plant shutdowns: Jingmen Yuanhan (April 7–27), Baling Petrochemical (April 1–23), and Henan Ruibo (continuously shut down in April). Henan Liyuan, Anhui Carbon-Xin, and Kaiyue produced methyl acetate for short periods. Yulin Shenneng's load was not high, Xinjiang Tianye operated with one production line, Shandong Hengxin ran at 70% capacity, and Huizhou Yuxin produced normally. Coal-to-ethanol output declined. As of this writing, the Shandong plant quoted 6,050 CNY/ton, down 250 CNY/ton from last month; Shaanxi plant quoted 5,600 CNY/ton, down 160 CNY/ton; Anhui plant quoted 5,900 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton. Coal-to-ethanol supply fell, and downstream chemical buyers purchased on a need-to basis. After the earlier price rally, some chemical orders shifted to biological fermentation ethanol, making it difficult for coal-to-ethanol suppliers to sell, increasing inventory and delivery pressure. Bearish sentiment grew, downstream demand declined, traders bought only as needed and were not proactive in restocking, and prices continued to weaken.

2. Data Analysis

The average profit for Heilongjiang corn ethanol was -9.05 CNY/ton, up 298.39 CNY/ton month-on-month. The average profit for northern Jiangsu cassava ethanol was -292.38 CNY/ton, down 48.40 CNY/ton month-on-month. The average profit for Guangxi molasses ethanol was 830.53 CNY/ton, up 111.37 CNY/ton month-on-month. During the month, raw material corn prices rose in the Northeast and Thai cassava chip prices increased, while molasses prices remained stable. Ethanol prices rose, narrowing losses for corn and cassava ethanol producers, while molasses ethanol profitability declined.

(Figure: Domestic ethanol operating rate comparison chart omitted)

China's ethanol output in April reached 973,400 tons, up 71,400 tons (7.92%) month-on-month. Cumulative output from January to April 2026 was 3.6912 million tons. Data analysis shows that before the holiday, the domestic ethanol operating rate increased; biological fermentation ethanol is expected to undergo concentrated maintenance after the holiday, and pre-holiday supply increased, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.

3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

(Table 3: Domestic ethanol data forecast form)

(Sentiment survey: Inner circle April, outer circle May; data source omitted)

A sentiment survey of domestic ethanol market participants for May shows the following views: 30% are stable, 30% bullish, and 40% bearish. Bullish sentiment is based on cost and supply support—major producers have maintenance plans, and corn prices may rise. Stable sentiment points to limited downstream demand alongside cost support. Bearish sentiment comes from limited downstream demand and the onset of low season for both chemical and edible-grade ethanol consumption.