Lead: Rising upstream benzene prices, coupled with supply contraction from plant maintenance in major producing regions, have underpinned a stronger domestic cyclohexane market with prices climbing steadily. As of August 13, the mainstream transaction range for cyclohexane in the Shandong market stood at 6,950–7,000 yuan/ton, up 6.49% week on week, with low-priced supply essentially disappearing from the market.
Dual drivers of cost and supply push quotes higher amid tight spot availability
Domestic cyclohexane prices have risen consecutively in recent days, with lower-end circulating supply tightening steadily. On August 13, the mainstream reference price in the Shandong market reached 6,975 yuan/ton, a single-week gain of 6.49%.
This round of price increases has been driven by both cost-side and supply-side factors. On the feedstock cost side, benzene prices rose over the week, with Sinopec's listing price for benzene raised in multiple increments from 7,350 yuan/ton to 7,700 yuan/ton (a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton), while East China benzene prices climbed with fluctuations to 7,780 yuan/ton, providing solid cost support. On the supply side, a cyclohexanone unit in Shandong underwent a brief shutdown last week, reducing cyclohexane output and thereby tightening regional supply, which likewise supported the sustained price uptrend.
Supply side: Plant maintenance and increased demand create temporary spot supply tightness
As a major cyclohexane producing region, Shandong has seen a notable supply contraction recently. A company in Shandong briefly idled its 270,000-ton/year hydration-process cyclohexanone unit for several days, reducing output from its associated by-product cyclohexane unit with an annual capacity of about 70,000 tons and further intensifying regional supply tightness. Amid the supply-demand mismatch, spot circulation in the Shandong cyclohexane market has dropped sharply, and sellers are strongly inclined to hold the line on pricing.
Overall, underpinned by higher feedstock benzene prices and a shortage of cyclohexane spot supply, suppliers have shown a strong willingness to raise prices.
Outlook: Cost support gradually weakens; cyclohexane prices to move within a range in tandem with feedstock
Cost-side expectations turning softer, loosening upside support: Benzene supply is expected to loosen going forward, with increased domestic unit output supplemented by imported cargoes, creating inventory accumulation pressure. Profit transmission along the downstream chain is being hindered, and downstream consumers show limited acceptance of high feedstock prices, making it difficult for them to sustain purchasing at elevated levels. As a result, the cost support from feedstock to cyclohexane will gradually weaken. Meanwhile, the start-up and shutdown schedules of upstream and downstream units in the north and south are misaligned, leading to increased cross-regional cargo flows. The high-price benchmark in East China is likely to soften, with the benzene price center expected to retreat to the 7,300–7,800 yuan/ton range, further undermining cost-side support.
Supply-demand landscape recovering, upward momentum fading: The Shandong cyclohexanone unit previously under maintenance has resumed operations, and its associated by-product cyclohexane has returned to normal external sales, releasing additional spot supply that will cap any further cyclohexane price gains. On the demand side, downstream buyers are only replenishing for immediate needs, with no concentrated bulk purchasing, keeping the industry in a weakly balanced state.
In summary, cyclohexane prices will track the trend of feedstock benzene in the near term, moving primarily within a range with no momentum for unilateral upward movement.
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